The model missed the final outcome (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win 3–1).
The model had projected Draw at 52.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Draw Shabab Al Ahli Dubai ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win 3–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.27 — Al-Wasl FC 0.51
-
Jan 11, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
1.91
CLV
—
Final Result
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai win · Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3–1 Al-Wasl FC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 52.4%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Pro League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ain | 18 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 44 |
| 2 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 42 |
| 3 | Al Wahda FC | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 33 |
| 4 | Al-Jazira | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 31 |
| 5 | Al-Wasl FC | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 30 |
| 6 | Al Nasr | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | Ajman | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 23 |
| 8 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Khorfakkan | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 19 |
| 10 | Al-Dhafra | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 18 |
| 11 | Sharjah FC | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 17 |
| 12 | Baniyas SC | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 14 |
| 13 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Al Bataeh | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 17 | 38 | 5 | +33 | 42 |
| 2 | Al Ain | 18 | 38 | 16 | +22 | 44 |
| 3 | Al Wahda FC | 17 | 28 | 14 | +14 | 33 |
| 4 | Al-Jazira | 18 | 28 | 16 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Khorfakkan | 18 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 19 |
| 6 | Al-Dhafra | 18 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 18 |
| 7 | Al Nasr | 18 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 23 |
| 8 | Sharjah FC | 17 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 17 |
| 9 | Al-Wasl FC | 17 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 30 |
| 10 | Ajman | 18 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 23 |
| 11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 18 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Al Bataeh | 18 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 13 | Baniyas SC | 17 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 14 |
| 14 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 17 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 13 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 17 | 9.0 | 3.5 | +5.5 | 42 |
| 2 | Al-Wasl FC | 17 | 9.6 | 5.2 | +4.4 | 30 |
| 3 | Al Wahda FC | 17 | 7.0 | 3.5 | +3.5 | 33 |
| 4 | Al Ain | 18 | 8.5 | 5.2 | +3.3 | 44 |
| 5 | Sharjah FC | 17 | 7.0 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 17 |
| 6 | Al Bataeh | 18 | 4.1 | 3.7 | +0.4 | 13 |
| 7 | Baniyas SC | 17 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 14 |
| 8 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 18 | 4.9 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 20 |
| 9 | Al-Jazira | 18 | 4.4 | 4.8 | -0.4 | 31 |
| 10 | Ajman | 18 | 5.9 | 6.5 | -0.6 | 23 |
| 11 | Al-Dhafra | 18 | 4.5 | 7.6 | -3.1 | 18 |
| 12 | Al Nasr | 18 | 6.1 | 9.4 | -3.3 | 23 |
| 13 | Khorfakkan | 18 | 5.5 | 10.1 | -4.6 | 19 |
| 14 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 17 | 4.2 | 11.1 | -6.9 | 13 |
