Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
—
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 — Under 2.5 (2 goals) — N/A
- Both Teams To Score — No — N/A
- 1X2 — Manchester City — N/A
- Correct Score Insights — 2-0 — N/A
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.08, 2 goals)
- Manchester City attacking xG significantly stronger (0.90 vs 0.18)
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Manchester City 0.90 — Brentford 0.18
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Dec 17, 2025 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Manchester City win · 2–0
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Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
—
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- Moderate model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
2.52
CLV
—
Final Result
Manchester City win · Manchester City 2–0 Brentford
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
—
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 39.7%
- Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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