The model missed the final outcome (Young Buffaloes win 4–0).
The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Draw Young Buffaloes ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Young Buffaloes
Market lesson
The full-time result was Young Buffaloes win 4–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Young Buffaloes 0.74 — Manzini Wanderers 0.61
-
Jan 20, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Young Buffaloes win · 4–0
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Young Buffaloes win · Young Buffaloes 4–0 Manzini Wanderers
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nsingizini Hotspurs | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 65 |
| 2 | Manzini Sea Birds | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 56 |
| 3 | Young Buffaloes | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 4 | Green Mamba | 30 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Highlanders | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 46 |
| 6 | Moneni Pirates | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 7 | Mbabane Swallows | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 44 |
| 8 | Royal Leopards | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 44 |
| 9 | Tabankulu | 30 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 41 |
| 10 | Rangers FC | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 40 |
| 11 | Ezulwini United | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 38 |
| 12 | Ubombo Sugar | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35 |
| 13 | Amawele | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 32 |
| 14 | Malanti Chiefs | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 30 |
| 15 | Sisonkhe | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 26 |
| 16 | Manzini Wanderers | 30 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royal Leopards | 30 | 51 | 37 | +14 | 44 |
| 2 | Manzini Sea Birds | 30 | 48 | 28 | +20 | 56 |
| 3 | Nsingizini Hotspurs | 30 | 44 | 14 | +30 | 65 |
| 4 | Young Buffaloes | 30 | 43 | 23 | +20 | 54 |
| 5 | Highlanders | 30 | 40 | 29 | +11 | 46 |
| 6 | Tabankulu | 30 | 34 | 32 | +2 | 41 |
| 7 | Mbabane Swallows | 30 | 33 | 27 | +6 | 44 |
| 8 | Moneni Pirates | 30 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 44 |
| 9 | Ezulwini United | 29 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Green Mamba | 30 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 48 |
| 11 | Rangers FC | 30 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 40 |
| 12 | Ubombo Sugar | 30 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 35 |
| 13 | Amawele | 30 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 14 | Malanti Chiefs | 30 | 20 | 37 | -17 | 30 |
| 15 | Sisonkhe | 29 | 20 | 47 | -27 | 26 |
| 16 | Manzini Wanderers | 30 | 17 | 67 | -50 | 11 |
