AI correctly predicted the Peru W win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Peru W Peru W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 3-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peru W | 57.3% | 84.3% | -27.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 24.6% | 9.6% | +15.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Bolivia W | 18.1% | 6.0% | +12.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Peru W's win probability at 84.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 57.3%, a difference of 27.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Peru W win 4–0).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.93) — 4 goals materialised
- Peru W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.92 vs 1.01)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Peru W higher (84.4% vs model 57.3%, 27.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Peru W win 4–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Peru W 57.2% · Draw 24.7% · Bolivia W 18.1%
- xG · Peru W 1.92 — Bolivia W 1.01
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Peru W 1.08 · Draw 9.46 · Bolivia W 15.09
- Implied 1X2 · Peru W 84.3% · Draw 9.6% · Bolivia W 6.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Peru W 1.08 · Draw 9.46 · Bolivia W 15.09
- Implied 1X2 · Peru W 84.3% · Draw 9.6% · Bolivia W 6.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Peru W win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Venezuela W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Ecuador W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Paraguay W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chile W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela W | 8 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Paraguay W | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Colombia W | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Chile W | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Ecuador W | 8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 2 | 40 | -38 | 1 |
