The model missed the final outcome (Argentina W win 0–1).
The model had projected Ecuador W at 52.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ecuador W Argentina W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 0-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador W | 52.1% | 33.7% | +18.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.9% | 29.1% | -3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Argentina W | 22.0% | 37.2% | -15.2 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Ecuador W's win probability at 52.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.7%, a difference of 18.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Argentina W win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Ecuador W.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ecuador W by 18.4 percentage points (33.7% vs model 52.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ecuador W 52.1% · Draw 25.9% · Argentina W 22.0%
- xG · Ecuador W 1.81 — Argentina W 1.12
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ecuador W 2.67 · Draw 3.09 · Argentina W 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Ecuador W 33.7% · Draw 29.1% · Argentina W 37.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ecuador W 2.67 · Draw 3.09 · Argentina W 2.42
- Implied 1X2 · Ecuador W 33.7% · Draw 29.1% · Argentina W 37.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 09, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Argentina W win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 52.1%
- Historical Bucket: 50–55% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia W | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 3 | Venezuela W | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Ecuador W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Paraguay W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Chile W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Venezuela W | 8 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 2 | Argentina W | 8 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 18 |
| 3 | Paraguay W | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 10 |
| 4 | Colombia W | 8 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Peru W | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
| 6 | Chile W | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Ecuador W | 8 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Uruguay W | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Bolivia W | 8 | 2 | 40 | -38 | 1 |
