Predictions / Football / Poland. Central Youth League / Arkonia U19 vs Legia Warszawa U19

Prediction Audit: Arkonia U19 vs Legia Warszawa U19 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Arkonia U19 Arkonia U19
May 09, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Legia Warszawa U19 Legia Warszawa U19

The model missed the final outcome (Legia Warszawa U19 win 1–3).

The model had projected Arkonia U19 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Arkonia U19 Legia Warszawa U19 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-2, 1-1, 0-2, 1-3, 0-1 1-3 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Legia Warszawa U19 higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Legia Warszawa U19 -36.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Arkonia U19 41.8% 13.7% +28.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 17.1% +8.6 pp Model Higher
Legia Warszawa U19 32.6% 69.2% -36.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Legia Warszawa U19's win probability at 69.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 36.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Legia Warszawa U19 win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–3 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Arkonia U19 by 36.6 percentage points (78.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Arkonia U19 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Legia Warszawa U19 32.6%
    • xG · Arkonia U19 1.45 — Legia Warszawa U19 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Arkonia U19 5.75 · Draw 5.25 · Legia Warszawa U19 1.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Arkonia U19 15.6% · Draw 17.1% · Legia Warszawa U19 67.4%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 09, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Arkonia U19 6.46 · Draw 5.18 · Legia Warszawa U19 1.28
    • Implied 1X2 · Arkonia U19 13.7% · Draw 17.1% · Legia Warszawa U19 69.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Legia Warszawa U19 win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (37 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 06:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3384693

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Legia Warszawa U19 win · Arkonia U19 1–3 Legia Warszawa U19
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Arkonia U19; market prices Legia Warszawa U19 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Arkonia U19 1.45 xG vs Legia Warszawa U19 1.25 → Arkonia U19 41.8%
  • Market: Legia Warszawa U19 ~13.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 31.2% · Over 2.5 68.8%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Central Youth League Central Youth League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 30 21 4 5 67
2 Górnik Zabrze U19 30 18 5 7 59
3 Lech Poznań U19 30 17 6 7 57
4 Miedź Legnica U19 30 16 6 8 54
5 Polonia Warszawa U19 30 15 6 9 51
6 Zagłębie Lubin U19 30 16 3 11 51
7 Escola Varsovia U19 30 14 6 10 48
8 Śląsk Wrocław U19 30 11 9 10 42
9 Wisła Kraków U19 30 13 2 15 41
10 Stal Rzeszów U19 30 11 6 13 39
11 Jagiellonia U19 30 11 4 15 37
12 Arkonia U19 30 9 7 14 34
13 Znicz Pruszków U19 30 9 5 16 32
14 Lechia Gdańsk U19 30 7 4 19 25
15 Resovia U19 30 5 9 16 24
16 Odra Opole U19 30 5 2 23 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Legia Warszawa U19 30 86 39 +47 67
2 Lech Poznań U19 30 74 51 +23 57
3 Górnik Zabrze U19 30 68 47 +21 59
4 Escola Varsovia U19 30 66 61 +5 48
5 Jagiellonia U19 30 62 62 0 37
6 Miedź Legnica U19 30 61 43 +18 54
7 Zagłębie Lubin U19 30 55 48 +7 51
8 Śląsk Wrocław U19 30 55 54 +1 42
9 Polonia Warszawa U19 30 54 37 +17 51
10 Wisła Kraków U19 30 52 58 -6 41
11 Lechia Gdańsk U19 30 50 68 -18 25
12 Stal Rzeszów U19 30 40 45 -5 39
13 Arkonia U19 30 40 50 -10 34
14 Znicz Pruszków U19 30 34 48 -14 32
15 Odra Opole U19 30 31 84 -53 17
16 Resovia U19 30 27 60 -33 24
Central Youth League Poland. Central Youth League Predictions