The model missed the final outcome (Wisła Kraków U19 win 0–4).
The model had projected Odra Opole U19 at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Odra Opole U19 Wisła Kraków U19 ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Odra Opole U19; match finished Wisła Kraków U19
Market lesson
The full-time result was Wisła Kraków U19 win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Odra Opole U19 1.49 — Wisła Kraków U19 1.23
-
Mar 07, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Wisła Kraków U19 win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Wisła Kraków U19 win · Odra Opole U19 0–4 Wisła Kraków U19
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Central Youth League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 21 | 4 | 5 | 67 |
| 2 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 59 |
| 3 | Lech Poznań U19 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 7 | 57 |
| 4 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 54 |
| 5 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 51 |
| 6 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 30 | 16 | 3 | 11 | 51 |
| 7 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 48 |
| 8 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 42 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 30 | 13 | 2 | 15 | 41 |
| 10 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 39 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia U19 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 | 37 |
| 12 | Arkonia U19 | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 13 | Znicz Pruszków U19 | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 14 | Lechia Gdańsk U19 | 30 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 25 |
| 15 | Resovia U19 | 30 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 24 |
| 16 | Odra Opole U19 | 30 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 17 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 67 |
| 2 | Lech Poznań U19 | 30 | 74 | 51 | +23 | 57 |
| 3 | Górnik Zabrze U19 | 30 | 68 | 47 | +21 | 59 |
| 4 | Escola Varsovia U19 | 30 | 66 | 61 | +5 | 48 |
| 5 | Jagiellonia U19 | 30 | 62 | 62 | 0 | 37 |
| 6 | Miedź Legnica U19 | 30 | 61 | 43 | +18 | 54 |
| 7 | Zagłębie Lubin U19 | 30 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 51 |
| 8 | Śląsk Wrocław U19 | 30 | 55 | 54 | +1 | 42 |
| 9 | Polonia Warszawa U19 | 30 | 54 | 37 | +17 | 51 |
| 10 | Wisła Kraków U19 | 30 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 41 |
| 11 | Lechia Gdańsk U19 | 30 | 50 | 68 | -18 | 25 |
| 12 | Stal Rzeszów U19 | 30 | 40 | 45 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | Arkonia U19 | 30 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 34 |
| 14 | Znicz Pruszków U19 | 30 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Odra Opole U19 | 30 | 31 | 84 | -53 | 17 |
| 16 | Resovia U19 | 30 | 27 | 60 | -33 | 24 |
