The model missed the final outcome (Lazio W win 1–3).
The model had projected Parma W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Parma W Lazio W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parma W | 41.8% | 29.8% | +12.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.4% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Lazio W | 32.6% | 43.8% | -11.3 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Parma W's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.8%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Lazio W win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Parma W.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Parma W; match finished Lazio W
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Parma W by 12.0 percentage points (29.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Parma W 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Lazio W 32.6%
- xG · Parma W 1.45 — Lazio W 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 12:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Parma W 3.08 · Draw 3.47 · Lazio W 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Parma W 29.8% · Draw 26.4% · Lazio W 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Parma W 3.08 · Draw 3.47 · Lazio W 2.09
- Implied 1X2 · Parma W 29.8% · Draw 26.4% · Lazio W 43.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lazio W win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Serie A Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma W | 22 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 55 |
| 2 | Inter Milano W | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 44 |
| 3 | Juventus W | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Fiorentina W | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | Lazio W | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Napoli W | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 32 |
| 7 | AC Milan W | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 8 | Como W | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 30 |
| 9 | Sassuolo W | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| 10 | Ternana W | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
| 11 | Parma W | 22 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
| 12 | Genoa W | 22 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 10 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Milano W | 22 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 44 |
| 2 | Roma W | 22 | 44 | 19 | +25 | 55 |
| 3 | Juventus W | 22 | 33 | 19 | +14 | 39 |
| 4 | Fiorentina W | 22 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Milan W | 22 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 32 |
| 6 | Lazio W | 22 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Napoli W | 22 | 30 | 25 | +5 | 32 |
| 8 | Como W | 22 | 24 | 22 | +2 | 30 |
| 9 | Ternana W | 22 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 17 |
| 10 | Genoa W | 22 | 18 | 43 | -25 | 10 |
| 11 | Sassuolo W | 22 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 18 |
| 12 | Parma W | 22 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 16 |
