Predictions / Football / Portugal. 1a Divisão - Women / Rio Ave W vs SL Benfica

Prediction Audit: Rio Ave W vs SL Benfica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rio Ave W Rio Ave W
May 10, 2026 - 13:45
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
SL Benfica SL Benfica

The model missed the final outcome (SL Benfica win 0–1).

The model had projected Rio Ave W at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw SL Benfica ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 0-1, 0-3, 1-2, 1-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished SL Benfica

Market lesson

The full-time result was SL Benfica win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 02:41 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Rio Ave W 1.45 — SL Benfica 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:45 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result SL Benfica win · 0–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 17:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1478297

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result SL Benfica win · Rio Ave W 0–1 SL Benfica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 1a Divisão - Women
  • Fixture: Rio Ave W vs SL Benfica
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Rio Ave W 1.45 — SL Benfica 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 46.9% · Over 2.5 53.1%); BTTS No (Yes 49.8% · No 50.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.8% · No 50.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-2 (14.7%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1a Divisão - Women 1a Divisão - Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 SL Benfica 18 15 3 0 48
2 Sporting CP W 18 10 5 3 35
3 Torreense W 18 10 2 6 32
4 Valadares Gaia W 18 7 5 6 26
5 Sporting Braga 18 6 6 6 24
6 Vitoria Guimaraes W 18 4 9 5 21
7 Racing Power W 18 4 6 8 18
8 Rio Ave W 18 4 5 9 17
9 Marítimo W 18 4 2 12 14
10 Damaiense W 18 2 5 11 11
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SL Benfica 18 58 11 +47 48
2 Sporting CP W 18 35 16 +19 35
3 Torreense W 18 29 22 +7 32
4 Sporting Braga 18 26 21 +5 24
5 Valadares Gaia W 18 21 22 -1 26
6 Marítimo W 18 19 40 -21 14
7 Damaiense W 18 17 51 -34 11
8 Vitoria Guimaraes W 18 16 23 -7 21
9 Racing Power W 18 16 23 -7 18
10 Rio Ave W 18 10 18 -8 17