AI correctly predicted the SL Benfica win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 SL Benfica SL Benfica ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SL Benfica | 41.8% | 57.5% | -15.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Sporting CP W | 32.6% | 18.7% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates SL Benfica's win probability at 57.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 15.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SL Benfica win 3–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about SL Benfica than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SL Benfica higher (57.5% vs model 41.8%, 15.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SL Benfica win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SL Benfica 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sporting CP W 32.6%
- xG · SL Benfica 1.45 — Sporting CP W 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · SL Benfica 1.59 · Draw 3.85 · Sporting CP W 4.88
- Implied 1X2 · SL Benfica 57.5% · Draw 23.8% · Sporting CP W 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SL Benfica 1.59 · Draw 3.85 · Sporting CP W 4.88
- Implied 1X2 · SL Benfica 57.5% · Draw 23.8% · Sporting CP W 18.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 01, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result SL Benfica win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1a Divisão - Women — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SL Benfica | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 48 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 35 |
| 3 | Torreense W | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 32 |
| 4 | Valadares Gaia W | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 26 |
| 5 | Sporting Braga | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 18 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 21 |
| 7 | Racing Power W | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 18 |
| 8 | Rio Ave W | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 17 |
| 9 | Marítimo W | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| 10 | Damaiense W | 18 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 11 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SL Benfica | 18 | 58 | 11 | +47 | 48 |
| 2 | Sporting CP W | 18 | 35 | 16 | +19 | 35 |
| 3 | Torreense W | 18 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 4 | Sporting Braga | 18 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 24 |
| 5 | Valadares Gaia W | 18 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 26 |
| 6 | Marítimo W | 18 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 14 |
| 7 | Damaiense W | 18 | 17 | 51 | -34 | 11 |
| 8 | Vitoria Guimaraes W | 18 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 21 |
| 9 | Racing Power W | 18 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 18 |
| 10 | Rio Ave W | 18 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 17 |
