Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice

Prediction Audit: Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno
May 23, 2026 - 12:00
4 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
České Budějovice České Budějovice

AI correctly predicted the Zbrojovka Brno win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Zbrojovka Brno higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zbrojovka Brno -28.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Zbrojovka Brno 41.8% 70.2% -28.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 17.4% +8.3 pp Model Higher
České Budějovice 32.6% 12.4% +20.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Zbrojovka Brno's win probability at 70.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 28.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Zbrojovka Brno win 4–1).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Zbrojovka Brno higher (70.3% vs model 41.8%, 28.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Zbrojovka Brno win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:12 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Zbrojovka Brno 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · České Budějovice 32.6%
    • xG · Zbrojovka Brno 1.45 — České Budějovice 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Zbrojovka Brno 1.29 · Draw 5.21 · České Budějovice 7.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Zbrojovka Brno 70.2% · Draw 17.4% · České Budějovice 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Zbrojovka Brno 1.29 · Draw 5.21 · České Budějovice 7.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Zbrojovka Brno 70.2% · Draw 17.4% · České Budějovice 12.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 23, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Zbrojovka Brno win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3057964

Closing Odds 1.29
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Zbrojovka Brno win · Zbrojovka Brno 4–1 České Budějovice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs České Budějovice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Zbrojovka Brno 1.45 — České Budějovice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 54.4% · Over 2.5 45.6%); BTTS Yes (Yes 64.2% · No 35.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.2% · No 35.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (13.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25