Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Ústí nad Labem vs Slavia Praha II

Prediction Audit: Ústí nad Labem vs Slavia Praha II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ústí nad Labem Ústí nad Labem
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Slavia Praha II Slavia Praha II

AI correctly predicted the Ústí nad Labem win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ústí nad Labem Ústí nad Labem ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ústí nad Labem higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ústí nad Labem -10.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ústí nad Labem 41.8% 52.4% -10.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 22.7% +3.0 pp Aligned
Slavia Praha II 32.6% 25.0% +7.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Ústí nad Labem's win probability at 52.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 10.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Ústí nad Labem win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ústí nad Labem than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ústí nad Labem higher (52.4% vs model 41.8%, 10.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ústí nad Labem win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ústí nad Labem 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Slavia Praha II 32.6%
    • xG · Ústí nad Labem 1.45 — Slavia Praha II 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ústí nad Labem 1.77 · Draw 4.09 · Slavia Praha II 3.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Ústí nad Labem 52.4% · Draw 22.7% · Slavia Praha II 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Ústí nad Labem 1.77 · Draw 4.09 · Slavia Praha II 3.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Ústí nad Labem 52.4% · Draw 22.7% · Slavia Praha II 25.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ústí nad Labem win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 47/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 14:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1881870

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ústí nad Labem win · Ústí nad Labem 2–1 Slavia Praha II
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Ústí nad Labem vs Slavia Praha II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ústí nad Labem 1.45 — Slavia Praha II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 40.1% · Implied: 35.4% · Probability edge: +4.7 pts · Est. EV: +10.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25