Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Viktoria Žižkov vs Sparta Praha II

Prediction Audit: Viktoria Žižkov vs Sparta Praha II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Viktoria Žižkov Viktoria Žižkov
May 10, 2026 - 08:15
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Sparta Praha II Sparta Praha II

The model missed the final outcome (Sparta Praha II win 0–3).

The model had projected Viktoria Žižkov at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Viktoria Žižkov Sparta Praha II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 0-1 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sparta Praha II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sparta Praha II -10.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Viktoria Žižkov 41.8% 31.9% +9.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.7% +0.9 pp Aligned
Sparta Praha II 32.6% 43.3% -10.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sparta Praha II's win probability at 43.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Sparta Praha II win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sparta Praha II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Viktoria Žižkov; match finished Sparta Praha II

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Viktoria Žižkov by 10.8 percentage points (52.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Viktoria Žižkov 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Sparta Praha II 32.6%
    • xG · Viktoria Žižkov 1.45 — Sparta Praha II 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Viktoria Žižkov 2.89 · Draw 3.73 · Sparta Praha II 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Viktoria Žižkov 31.9% · Draw 24.7% · Sparta Praha II 43.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Viktoria Žižkov 2.89 · Draw 3.73 · Sparta Praha II 2.13
    • Implied 1X2 · Viktoria Žižkov 31.9% · Draw 24.7% · Sparta Praha II 43.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sparta Praha II win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 14:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2618664

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sparta Praha II win · Viktoria Žižkov 0–3 Sparta Praha II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Viktoria Žižkov vs Sparta Praha II
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Viktoria Žižkov 1.45 — Sparta Praha II 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 59.7% · Implied: 40.6% · Probability edge: +19.1 pts · Est. EV: +40.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.3% · No 59.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25