Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Baník Ostrava II vs Ústí nad Labem

Prediction Audit: Baník Ostrava II vs Ústí nad Labem Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Baník Ostrava II Baník Ostrava II
May 10, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Ústí nad Labem Ústí nad Labem

The model missed the final outcome (Ústí nad Labem win 1–2).

The model had projected Baník Ostrava II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Baník Ostrava II Ústí nad Labem ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Baník Ostrava II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Baník Ostrava II -6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Baník Ostrava II 41.8% 48.3% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.7% +1.0 pp Aligned
Ústí nad Labem 32.6% 27.0% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Baník Ostrava II's win probability at 48.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ústí nad Labem win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Baník Ostrava II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Baník Ostrava II; match finished Ústí nad Labem

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Baník Ostrava II by 6.5 percentage points (48.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Baník Ostrava II 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Ústí nad Labem 32.6%
    • xG · Baník Ostrava II 1.45 — Ústí nad Labem 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Baník Ostrava II 1.92 · Draw 3.76 · Ústí nad Labem 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Baník Ostrava II 48.3% · Draw 24.7% · Ústí nad Labem 27.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Baník Ostrava II 1.92 · Draw 3.76 · Ústí nad Labem 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Baník Ostrava II 48.3% · Draw 24.7% · Ústí nad Labem 27.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ústí nad Labem win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 67/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 11, 2026 · 08:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-24516

Closing Odds 1.92
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ústí nad Labem win · Baník Ostrava II 1–2 Ústí nad Labem
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Baník Ostrava II vs Ústí nad Labem
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Baník Ostrava II 1.45 — Ústí nad Labem 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 63.4% · No 36.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.4% · No 36.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.8%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming FNL Matches Track Baník Ostrava II Next Match Prediction Track Ústí nad Labem Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Baník Ostrava II & Ústí nad Labem!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25