Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Pamba Jiji vs JKT Tanzania

Prediction Audit: Pamba Jiji vs JKT Tanzania Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pamba Jiji Pamba Jiji
Jun 27, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.11
2 0.97
xG Accuracy: 73%
JKT Tanzania JKT Tanzania

The model missed the final outcome (JKT Tanzania win 1–2).

The model had projected Pamba Jiji at 39.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pamba Jiji JKT Tanzania ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Pamba Jiji higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Pamba Jiji -5.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pamba Jiji 39.1% 44.9% -5.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 32.7% 30.3% +2.4 pp Aligned
JKT Tanzania 28.2% 24.8% +3.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Pamba Jiji's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.1%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was JKT Tanzania win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Pamba Jiji. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pamba Jiji by 5.8 percentage points (44.9% vs model 39.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 27, 2026 · 20:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 39.1% · Draw 32.7% · JKT Tanzania 28.2%
    • xG · Pamba Jiji 1.11 — JKT Tanzania 0.97
  2. Jun 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pamba Jiji 1.98 · Draw 2.93 · JKT Tanzania 3.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 44.9% · Draw 30.3% · JKT Tanzania 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 27, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pamba Jiji 1.98 · Draw 2.93 · JKT Tanzania 3.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 44.9% · Draw 30.3% · JKT Tanzania 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 27, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result JKT Tanzania win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 17:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3199919

Closing Odds 1.98
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result JKT Tanzania win · Pamba Jiji 1–2 JKT Tanzania
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Pamba Jiji vs JKT Tanzania
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-27 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Pamba Jiji 1.11 — JKT Tanzania 0.97 (total xG ≈ 2.08)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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