Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Singida Big Stars vs Mashujaa

Prediction Audit: Singida Big Stars vs Mashujaa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Singida Big Stars Singida Big Stars
Jun 24, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.14
1 0.92
xG Accuracy: 72%
Mashujaa Mashujaa

The model missed the final outcome (Mashujaa win 0–1).

The model had projected Singida Big Stars at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Singida Big Stars Mashujaa ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Mashujaa -4.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Singida Big Stars 36.1% 34.3% +1.9 pp Aligned
Draw 33.1% 30.5% +2.5 pp Aligned
Mashujaa 30.8% 35.2% -4.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Mashujaa win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.06, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Singida Big Stars; match finished Mashujaa

Market lesson

The full-time result was Mashujaa win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 24, 2026 · 19:23 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Singida Big Stars 36.1% · Draw 33.1% · Mashujaa 30.8%
    • xG · Singida Big Stars 1.14 — Mashujaa 0.92
  2. Jun 24, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Singida Big Stars 2.63 · Draw 2.95 · Mashujaa 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Singida Big Stars 34.3% · Draw 30.5% · Mashujaa 35.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jun 24, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Singida Big Stars 2.63 · Draw 2.95 · Mashujaa 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Singida Big Stars 34.3% · Draw 30.5% · Mashujaa 35.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jun 24, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mashujaa win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 16:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3451185

Closing Odds 2.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mashujaa win · Singida Big Stars 0–1 Mashujaa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Singida Big Stars vs Mashujaa
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-24 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Singida Big Stars 1.14 — Mashujaa 0.92 (total xG ≈ 2.06)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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