Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Pamba Jiji vs Tanzania Prisons

Prediction Audit: Pamba Jiji vs Tanzania Prisons Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Pamba Jiji Pamba Jiji
May 26, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Prisons

The model missed the final outcome (Tanzania Prisons win 2–3).

The model had projected Pamba Jiji at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Pamba Jiji Tanzania Prisons ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Tanzania Prisons considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Tanzania Prisons +16.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Pamba Jiji 41.8% 55.9% -14.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 28.2% -2.5 pp Aligned
Tanzania Prisons 32.6% 15.9% +16.7 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Tanzania Prisons's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 15.9%, a difference of 16.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Tanzania Prisons win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Tanzania Prisons.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Pamba Jiji by 16.7 percentage points (25.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 26, 2026 · 18:13 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Tanzania Prisons 32.6%
    • xG · Pamba Jiji 1.45 — Tanzania Prisons 1.25
  2. May 26, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Pamba Jiji 1.59 · Draw 3.15 · Tanzania Prisons 5.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 55.9% · Draw 28.2% · Tanzania Prisons 15.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 26, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Pamba Jiji 1.59 · Draw 3.15 · Tanzania Prisons 5.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Pamba Jiji 55.9% · Draw 28.2% · Tanzania Prisons 15.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 26, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Tanzania Prisons win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 09:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1851680

Closing Odds 5.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Tanzania Prisons win · Pamba Jiji 2–3 Tanzania Prisons
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Pamba Jiji vs Tanzania Prisons
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-26 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Pamba Jiji 1.45 — Tanzania Prisons 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 79.7% · Implied: 60.5% · Probability edge: +19.2 pts · Est. EV: +21.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 20.3% · No 79.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (17.3%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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