Predictions / Football / Tanzania. Ligi kuu Bara / Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa

Prediction Audit: Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dodoma Jiji Dodoma Jiji
May 20, 2026 - 18:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Mashujaa Mashujaa

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Dodoma Jiji at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dodoma Jiji Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Mashujaa considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Mashujaa +7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dodoma Jiji 41.8% 42.6% -0.8 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 31.9% -6.2 pp Market Higher
Mashujaa 32.6% 25.5% +7.0 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Mashujaa's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.5%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Mashujaa.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Dodoma Jiji; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Dodoma Jiji by 7.0 percentage points (34.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 20, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mashujaa 32.6%
    • xG · Dodoma Jiji 1.45 — Mashujaa 1.25
  2. May 20, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dodoma Jiji 2.09 · Draw 2.79 · Mashujaa 3.46
    • Implied 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 42.5% · Draw 31.8% · Mashujaa 25.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 20, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dodoma Jiji 2.11 · Draw 2.82 · Mashujaa 3.52
    • Implied 1X2 · Dodoma Jiji 42.6% · Draw 31.9% · Mashujaa 25.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 20, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 02:11 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2116987

Closing Odds 3.52
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dodoma Jiji 1–1 Mashujaa
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligi kuu Bara
  • Fixture: Dodoma Jiji vs Mashujaa
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-20 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Dodoma Jiji 1.45 — Mashujaa 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 76.2% · Implied: 57.2% · Probability edge: +19.0 pts · Est. EV: +23.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 23.8% · No 76.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (19.2%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligi kuu Bara Ligi kuu Bara — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 64
4 Singida Fountain Gate 30 15 5 10 50
5 Kitayosce 30 11 10 9 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 42
7 Pamba Jiji 30 9 9 12 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 33
12 Singida Big Stars 30 9 6 15 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 27
16 KMC 30 2 3 25 9
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Young Africans 30 71 9 +62 75
2 Simba 30 54 11 +43 73
3 Singida Fountain Gate 30 47 35 +12 50
4 Azam 30 46 12 +34 64
5 Kitayosce 30 33 28 +5 43
6 Pamba Jiji 30 32 35 -3 36
7 Coastal Union 30 31 37 -6 36
8 JKT Tanzania 30 30 33 -3 42
9 Namungo 30 25 32 -7 34
10 Dodoma Jiji 30 25 36 -11 35
11 Singida Big Stars 30 25 44 -19 33
12 Mtibwa Sugar 30 25 48 -23 27
13 Mbeya City 30 24 41 -17 30
14 Tanzania Prisons 30 23 41 -18 32
15 KMC 30 16 53 -37 9
16 Mashujaa 30 15 27 -12 33
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