Predictions / Football / Croatia. Third NL - Jug / Sibenik vs Hrvatski vitez

Prediction Audit: Sibenik vs Hrvatski vitez Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sibenik Sibenik
May 16, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
5 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Hrvatski vitez Hrvatski vitez

The model missed the final outcome (Hrvatski vitez win 1–5).

The model had projected Sibenik at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sibenik Hrvatski vitez ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 1-5 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Sibenik; match finished Hrvatski vitez

Market lesson

The full-time result was Hrvatski vitez win 1–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Sibenik 1.45 — Hrvatski vitez 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Hrvatski vitez win · 1–5
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 13:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1602517

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hrvatski vitez win · Sibenik 1–5 Hrvatski vitez
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Third NL - Jug
  • Fixture: Sibenik vs Hrvatski vitez
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Sibenik 1.45 — Hrvatski vitez 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS No (Yes 41.8% · No 58.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 41.8% · No 58.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Third NL - Jug Third NL - Jug — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagora 30 22 3 5 69
2 Neretva Metković 30 19 6 5 63
3 HNK Zadar 30 18 6 6 60
4 Sloga Mravince 30 13 9 8 48
5 Junak 30 12 6 12 42
6 Jadran KS 30 11 6 13 39
7 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 30 10 8 12 38
8 Vodice 30 10 7 13 37
9 Primorac Biograd 30 10 7 13 37
10 Hrvatski vitez 30 11 3 16 36
11 GOŠK Dubrovnik 30 8 11 11 35
12 Val Kaštel Stari 30 10 5 15 35
13 Sibenik 30 9 7 14 34
14 Omiš 30 9 6 15 33
15 Neretvanac Opuzen 30 9 6 15 33
16 Kamen Ivanbegovina 30 8 6 16 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zagora 30 71 32 +39 69
2 HNK Zadar 30 65 27 +38 60
3 Neretva Metković 30 58 26 +32 63
4 Sloga Mravince 30 50 39 +11 48
5 Hrvatski vitez 30 48 60 -12 36
6 Val Kaštel Stari 30 44 57 -13 35
7 Junak 30 43 40 +3 42
8 GOŠK Dubrovnik 30 40 42 -2 35
9 Primorac Biograd 30 39 46 -7 37
10 Omiš 30 37 43 -6 33
11 Jadran KS 30 36 49 -13 39
12 Neretvanac Opuzen 30 34 47 -13 33
13 Vodice 30 33 37 -4 37
14 Sibenik 30 32 49 -17 34
15 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 30 31 36 -5 38
16 Kamen Ivanbegovina 30 30 61 -31 30