Predictions / Football / Croatia. Third NL - Jug / Sibenik vs Neretva Metković

Prediction Audit: Sibenik vs Neretva Metković Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sibenik Sibenik
Mar 15, 2026 - 14:00
0 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Neretva Metković Neretva Metković

The model missed the final outcome (Neretva Metković win 0–2).

The model had projected Sibenik at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sibenik Neretva Metković ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Neretva Metković win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Sibenik 1.45 — Neretva Metković 1.25
  2. Mar 15, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Neretva Metković win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 17:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2996134

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Neretva Metković win · Sibenik 0–2 Neretva Metković
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Third NL - Jug Third NL - Jug — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zagora 30 22 3 5 69
2 Neretva Metković 30 19 6 5 63
3 HNK Zadar 30 18 6 6 60
4 Sloga Mravince 30 13 9 8 48
5 Junak 30 12 6 12 42
6 Jadran KS 30 11 6 13 39
7 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 30 10 8 12 38
8 Vodice 30 10 7 13 37
9 Primorac Biograd 30 10 7 13 37
10 Hrvatski vitez 30 11 3 16 36
11 GOŠK Dubrovnik 30 8 11 11 35
12 Val Kaštel Stari 30 10 5 15 35
13 Sibenik 30 9 7 14 34
14 Omiš 30 9 6 15 33
15 Neretvanac Opuzen 30 9 6 15 33
16 Kamen Ivanbegovina 30 8 6 16 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zagora 30 71 32 +39 69
2 HNK Zadar 30 65 27 +38 60
3 Neretva Metković 30 58 26 +32 63
4 Sloga Mravince 30 50 39 +11 48
5 Hrvatski vitez 30 48 60 -12 36
6 Val Kaštel Stari 30 44 57 -13 35
7 Junak 30 43 40 +3 42
8 GOŠK Dubrovnik 30 40 42 -2 35
9 Primorac Biograd 30 39 46 -7 37
10 Omiš 30 37 43 -6 33
11 Jadran KS 30 36 49 -13 39
12 Neretvanac Opuzen 30 34 47 -13 33
13 Vodice 30 33 37 -4 37
14 Sibenik 30 32 49 -17 34
15 GOŠK Kaštel Gomilica 30 31 36 -5 38
16 Kamen Ivanbegovina 30 30 61 -31 30