The model missed the final outcome (Orapa United win 2–3).
The model had projected Morupule Wanderers at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Morupule Wanderers Orapa United ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Morupule Wanderers; match finished Orapa United
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Orapa United win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Morupule Wanderers 1.49 — Orapa United 1.23
-
Feb 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Orapa United win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Orapa United win · Morupule Wanderers 2–3 Orapa United
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 29 | 22 | 5 | 2 | 71 |
| 2 | Galaxy | 29 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 56 |
| 3 | Centre Chiefs | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 56 |
| 4 | Sua Flamingoes | 29 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 56 |
| 5 | Township Rollers | 29 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 45 |
| 6 | Morupule Wanderers | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 44 |
| 7 | Orapa United | 29 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 44 |
| 8 | Nico United | 29 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 42 |
| 9 | Matebele | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 33 |
| 10 | TAFIC | 29 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 32 |
| 11 | Police XI | 29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 32 |
| 12 | BDF XI | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 30 |
| 13 | Extension Gunners | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 26 |
| 14 | Black Lions | 29 | 6 | 6 | 17 | 24 |
| 15 | Santa Green | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 22 |
| 16 | Calendar | 29 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gaborone United | 29 | 60 | 14 | +46 | 71 |
| 2 | Galaxy | 29 | 51 | 22 | +29 | 56 |
| 3 | Sua Flamingoes | 29 | 42 | 29 | +13 | 56 |
| 4 | Morupule Wanderers | 29 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 44 |
| 5 | Centre Chiefs | 29 | 37 | 16 | +21 | 56 |
| 6 | Orapa United | 29 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 44 |
| 7 | Township Rollers | 29 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 8 | BDF XI | 29 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 30 |
| 9 | Matebele | 29 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 33 |
| 10 | Nico United | 29 | 25 | 24 | +1 | 42 |
| 11 | TAFIC | 29 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 32 |
| 12 | Extension Gunners | 29 | 24 | 43 | -19 | 26 |
| 13 | Santa Green | 29 | 22 | 56 | -34 | 22 |
| 14 | Police XI | 29 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 32 |
| 15 | Calendar | 29 | 18 | 40 | -22 | 21 |
| 16 | Black Lions | 29 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 24 |
