The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Dobrovce at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Dobrovce Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dobrovce | 41.8% | 28.0% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.9% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Ljutomer | 32.6% | 46.0% | -13.5 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Dobrovce's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.0%, a difference of 13.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 3–3.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Dobrovce.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Dobrovce; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dobrovce by 13.7 percentage points (28.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dobrovce 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Ljutomer 32.6%
- xG · Dobrovce 1.45 — Ljutomer 1.25
-
May 16, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dobrovce 3.17 · Draw 3.43 · Ljutomer 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Dobrovce 28.0% · Draw 25.9% · Ljutomer 46.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Dobrovce 3.17 · Draw 3.43 · Ljutomer 1.93
- Implied 1X2 · Dobrovce 28.0% · Draw 25.9% · Ljutomer 46.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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3. SNL - East — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Videm | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 37 |
| 2 | Brežice | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 |
| 3 | Korotan Prevalje | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 4 | Zavrč | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 26 |
| 5 | Podvinci | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 6 | Hajdina | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 |
| 7 | Fužinar | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Rogaška | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 9 | Čarda Martjanci | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 10 | Šmartno | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
| 11 | Rače | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| 13 | NŠ Drava | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Dobrovce | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 5 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Videm | 16 | 39 | 16 | +23 | 37 |
| 2 | Čarda Martjanci | 15 | 27 | 23 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Fužinar | 16 | 26 | 18 | +8 | 21 |
| 4 | Rogaška | 15 | 24 | 16 | +8 | 21 |
| 5 | Brežice | 16 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 28 |
| 6 | Šmartno | 16 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 18 |
| 7 | Korotan Prevalje | 16 | 21 | 16 | +5 | 26 |
| 8 | Zavrč | 17 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 26 |
| 9 | Hajdina | 16 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 23 |
| 10 | Podvinci | 15 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 23 |
| 11 | Rače | 15 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 16 |
| 12 | Ljutomer | 16 | 14 | 31 | -17 | 10 |
| 13 | Dobrovce | 15 | 11 | 43 | -32 | 5 |
| 14 | NŠ Drava | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 |
