Prediction Audit: Šmartno vs Fužinar Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Šmartno

May 10, 2026 - 15:00

5 1.45

0 1.25

xG Accuracy: 27%

Fužinar

The model missed the final outcome (Šmartno win 5–0).

The model had projected Šmartno at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw Šmartno ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Šmartno

Market lesson

The full-time result was Šmartno win 5–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 03, 2026 · 04:37 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Šmartno 1.45 — Fužinar 1.25
May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Šmartno win · 5–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 10:33 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2601574

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Šmartno win · Šmartno 5–0 Fužinar

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. SNL - East
Fixture: Šmartno vs Fužinar
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Šmartno 1.45 — Fužinar 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 39.0% · Over 2.5 61.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 61.8% · No 38.2%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 61.8% · No 38.2%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. SNL - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Videm	16	11	4	1	37
2	Brežice	16	8	4	4	28
3	Korotan Prevalje	16	7	5	4	26
4	Zavrč	17	8	2	7	26
5	Podvinci	15	6	5	4	23
6	Hajdina	16	6	5	5	23
7	Fužinar	16	5	6	5	21
8	Rogaška	15	5	6	4	21
9	Čarda Martjanci	15	6	3	6	21
10	Šmartno	16	4	6	6	18
11	Rače	15	3	7	5	16
12	Ljutomer	16	1	7	8	10
13	NŠ Drava	4	1	2	1	5
14	Dobrovce	15	1	2	12	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Videm	16	39	16	+23	37
2	Čarda Martjanci	15	27	23	+4	21
3	Fužinar	16	26	18	+8	21
4	Rogaška	15	24	16	+8	21
5	Brežice	16	23	19	+4	28
6	Šmartno	16	22	27	-5	18
7	Korotan Prevalje	16	21	16	+5	26
8	Zavrč	17	21	20	+1	26
9	Hajdina	16	20	21	-1	23
10	Podvinci	15	17	13	+4	23
11	Rače	15	16	18	-2	16
12	Ljutomer	16	14	31	-17	10
13	Dobrovce	15	11	43	-32	5
14	NŠ Drava	4	4	4	0	5