Prediction Audit: Bistrc vs IB 1975 Ljubljana Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bistrc

May 09, 2026 - 15:00

1 1.45

3 1.25

xG Accuracy: 55%

IB 1975 Ljubljana

The model missed the final outcome (IB 1975 Ljubljana win 1–3).

The model had projected Bistrc at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 draw IB 1975 Ljubljana ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
1X2: model leaned draw; match finished IB 1975 Ljubljana

Market lesson

The full-time result was IB 1975 Ljubljana win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

May 03, 2026 · 04:40 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Bistrc 1.45 — IB 1975 Ljubljana 1.25
May 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result IB 1975 Ljubljana win · 1–3
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1636465

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result IB 1975 Ljubljana win · Bistrc 1–3 IB 1975 Ljubljana

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 3. SNL - West
Fixture: Bistrc vs IB 1975 Ljubljana
Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Bistrc 1.45 — IB 1975 Ljubljana 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 34.9% · Over 2.5 65.1%); BTTS No (Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 47.4% · No 52.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (9.7%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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3. SNL - West — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Dob	26	16	8	2	56
2	Jesenice	26	14	7	5	49
3	Izola	26	14	5	7	47
4	Vipava	26	13	4	9	43
5	Dren Vrhnika	26	12	6	8	42
6	Šobec Lesce	26	11	8	7	41
7	Škofja Loka	26	11	8	7	41
8	Svoboda	26	12	4	10	40
9	Rudar Trbovlje	26	9	7	10	34
10	Šencur	26	10	2	14	32
11	Žiri	26	8	4	14	28
12	Bistrc	26	7	4	15	25
13	Adria	26	6	4	16	22
14	Kranj	26	3	1	22	10

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Dob	26	56	21	+35	56
2	Svoboda	26	56	36	+20	40
3	Rudar Trbovlje	26	52	54	-2	34
4	Jesenice	26	51	28	+23	49
5	Bistrc	26	50	71	-21	25
6	Izola	26	48	23	+25	47
7	Vipava	26	47	38	+9	43
8	Šencur	26	46	50	-4	32
9	Žiri	26	43	51	-8	28
10	Škofja Loka	26	39	34	+5	41
11	Dren Vrhnika	26	35	29	+6	42
12	Adria	26	34	60	-26	22
13	Šobec Lesce	26	30	26	+4	41
14	Kranj	26	22	88	-66	10