The model missed the final outcome (CSM Ramnicu Valcea win 1–5).
The model had projected ACS Mediaş 2022 at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 ACS Mediaş 2022 CSM Ramnicu Valcea ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-5 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned ACS Mediaş 2022; match finished CSM Ramnicu Valcea
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was CSM Ramnicu Valcea win 1–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · ACS Mediaş 2022 1.45 — CSM Ramnicu Valcea 1.25
-
Mar 28, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result CSM Ramnicu Valcea win · 1–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
CSM Ramnicu Valcea win · ACS Mediaş 2022 1–5 CSM Ramnicu Valcea
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Liga III - Serie 6 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 21 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 50 |
| 1 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| 2 | Minerul Lupeni | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 40 |
| 2 | Inter Sibiu | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 31 |
| 3 | Păușești | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| 4 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 4 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| 5 | Jiul Petroşani | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 34 |
| 5 | CSM Targu Jiu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| 6 | Unirea Bascov | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 |
| 7 | Viitorul Dăești | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 8 | Gilortul | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 21 | 50 | 19 | +31 | 50 |
| 2 | Vulturii Fărcăşeşti | 21 | 48 | 36 | +12 | 36 |
| 3 | Minerul Lupeni | 22 | 32 | 23 | +9 | 40 |
| 4 | Jiul Petroşani | 21 | 30 | 22 | +8 | 34 |
| 5 | ACS Mediaş 2022 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 40 |
| 6 | Inter Sibiu | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 31 |
| 7 | Unirea Bascov | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 23 |
| 8 | Păușești | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| 9 | ARO Muscelul Câmpulung | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| 10 | CSM Targu Jiu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| 11 | Viitorul Dăești | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| 12 | Gilortul | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
