Predictions / Football / England. Non League Div One - Northern West / Congleton Town vs Bootle

Prediction Audit: Congleton Town vs Bootle Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Congleton Town Congleton Town
Mar 07, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.49
1 1.23
xG Accuracy: 82%
Bootle Bootle

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Congleton Town at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Congleton Town Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Congleton Town; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Congleton Town 1.49 — Bootle 1.23
  2. Mar 07, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 23:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1774743

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Congleton Town 1–1 Bootle
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Related Predictions

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Non League Div One - Northern West Non League Div One - Northern West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bury 42 27 9 6 90
2 Avro 42 27 7 8 88
3 Stalybridge Celtic 42 25 7 10 82
4 Runcorn Linnets 42 23 11 8 80
5 Lower Breck 42 22 9 11 75
6 Bootle 42 21 11 10 74
7 Vauxhall Motors 42 20 12 10 72
8 Witton Albion 42 17 10 15 61
9 Nantwich Town 42 18 7 17 61
10 Chasetown 42 17 9 16 60
11 Mossley 42 14 17 11 59
12 Shifnal Town FC 42 15 10 17 55
13 Atherton Collieries 42 16 7 19 55
14 Newcastle Town 42 15 7 20 52
15 Clitheroe 42 13 12 17 51
16 Kidsgrove Athletic 42 12 11 19 47
17 Stafford Rangers 42 12 9 21 45
18 Congleton Town 42 10 14 18 44
19 Sporting Khalsa 42 12 7 23 43
20 Wythenshawe Town 42 8 8 26 32
21 Trafford 42 7 8 27 29
22 Darlaston Town 42 7 6 29 27
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Avro 42 94 41 +53 88
2 Vauxhall Motors 42 94 70 +24 72
3 Stalybridge Celtic 42 88 55 +33 82
4 Lower Breck 42 88 62 +26 75
5 Bury 42 86 36 +50 90
6 Runcorn Linnets 42 76 45 +31 80
7 Witton Albion 42 76 67 +9 61
8 Bootle 42 69 48 +21 74
9 Nantwich Town 42 69 65 +4 61
10 Clitheroe 42 64 67 -3 51
11 Kidsgrove Athletic 42 62 78 -16 47
12 Shifnal Town FC 42 60 67 -7 55
13 Congleton Town 42 60 72 -12 44
14 Mossley 42 59 53 +6 59
15 Sporting Khalsa 42 57 81 -24 43
16 Atherton Collieries 42 56 68 -12 55
17 Chasetown 42 55 52 +3 60
18 Stafford Rangers 42 51 70 -19 45
19 Trafford 42 49 80 -31 29
20 Newcastle Town 42 45 62 -17 52
21 Wythenshawe Town 42 40 93 -53 32
22 Darlaston Town 42 33 99 -66 27