Predictions / Football / United-Arab-Emirates. Division 1 / Al Dahra vs Al Jazira Al Hamra

Prediction Audit: Al Dahra vs Al Jazira Al Hamra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Dahra Al Dahra
May 15, 2026 - 14:05
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Al Jazira Al Hamra Al Jazira Al Hamra

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Al Dahra at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al Dahra Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Al Jazira Al Hamra higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al Jazira Al Hamra -16.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Dahra 41.8% 25.9% +15.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 24.7% +0.9 pp Aligned
Al Jazira Al Hamra 32.6% 49.4% -16.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Al Jazira Al Hamra's win probability at 49.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 16.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Al Jazira Al Hamra than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Al Dahra; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Dahra by 16.9 percentage points (58.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Dahra 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Al Jazira Al Hamra 32.6%
    • xG · Al Dahra 1.45 — Al Jazira Al Hamra 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Dahra 3.50 · Draw 3.66 · Al Jazira Al Hamra 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Dahra 25.9% · Draw 24.7% · Al Jazira Al Hamra 49.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Dahra 3.50 · Draw 3.66 · Al Jazira Al Hamra 1.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Dahra 25.9% · Draw 24.7% · Al Jazira Al Hamra 49.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 14:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 5/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 23:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1772476

Closing Odds 1.83
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Al Dahra 0–0 Al Jazira Al Hamra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Al Dahra vs Al Jazira Al Hamra
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 14:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Al Dahra 1.45 — Al Jazira Al Hamra 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 55.7% · Implied: 38.3% · Probability edge: +17.4 pts · Est. EV: +46.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.3% · No 55.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hatta SC 28 18 5 5 59
2 Dubai United 28 17 7 4 58
3 Al Urooba 28 17 6 5 57
4 Dibba Al Hisn 28 17 5 6 56
5 Al Arabi 28 15 5 8 50
6 Al Thaid 28 13 9 6 48
7 Emirates Club 28 12 6 10 42
8 Al Fujairah SC 28 10 9 9 39
9 Al Hamriyah 28 10 8 10 38
10 Gulf United 28 7 4 17 25
11 Al Jazira Al Hamra 28 6 6 16 24
12 Ittifaq 28 7 3 18 24
13 City 28 6 5 17 23
14 Al Dahra 28 5 6 17 21
15 Masfut 28 5 6 17 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dibba Al Hisn 28 58 25 +33 56
2 Hatta SC 28 57 25 +32 59
3 Al Fujairah SC 28 46 47 -1 39
4 Dubai United 28 45 28 +17 58
5 Al Hamriyah 28 45 34 +11 38
6 Al Arabi 28 44 34 +10 50
7 Gulf United 28 39 52 -13 25
8 Al Urooba 28 38 17 +21 57
9 Emirates Club 28 38 39 -1 42
10 Al Thaid 28 37 30 +7 48
11 Ittifaq 28 37 57 -20 24
12 Al Jazira Al Hamra 28 35 51 -16 24
13 Al Dahra 28 30 56 -26 21
14 Masfut 28 30 58 -28 21
15 City 28 29 55 -26 23