Predictions / Football / United-Arab-Emirates. Division 1 / Al Fujairah SC vs Al Thaid

Prediction Audit: Al Fujairah SC vs Al Thaid Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Fujairah SC Al Fujairah SC
May 10, 2026 - 14:05
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Al Thaid Al Thaid

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Al Fujairah SC at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Al Fujairah SC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Al Fujairah SC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Al Fujairah SC +8.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Fujairah SC 41.8% 33.2% +8.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 27.8% -2.1 pp Aligned
Al Thaid 32.6% 39.0% -6.4 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Al Fujairah SC's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.2%, a difference of 8.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Al Fujairah SC.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Fujairah SC by 8.5 percentage points (33.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Fujairah SC 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Al Thaid 32.6%
    • xG · Al Fujairah SC 1.45 — Al Thaid 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Fujairah SC 2.72 · Draw 3.25 · Al Thaid 2.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Fujairah SC 33.2% · Draw 27.8% · Al Thaid 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Fujairah SC 2.72 · Draw 3.25 · Al Thaid 2.32
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Fujairah SC 33.2% · Draw 27.8% · Al Thaid 39.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:05 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 19/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1596169

Closing Odds 2.72
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Al Fujairah SC 0–0 Al Thaid
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Division 1
  • Fixture: Al Fujairah SC vs Al Thaid
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 14:05:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Al Fujairah SC 1.45 — Al Thaid 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 72.6% · Implied: 59.0% · Probability edge: +13.6 pts · Est. EV: +12.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 72.6% · No 27.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Division 1 Division 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hatta SC 28 18 5 5 59
2 Dubai United 28 17 7 4 58
3 Al Urooba 28 17 6 5 57
4 Dibba Al Hisn 28 17 5 6 56
5 Al Arabi 28 15 5 8 50
6 Al Thaid 28 13 9 6 48
7 Emirates Club 28 12 6 10 42
8 Al Fujairah SC 28 10 9 9 39
9 Al Hamriyah 28 10 8 10 38
10 Gulf United 28 7 4 17 25
11 Al Jazira Al Hamra 28 6 6 16 24
12 Ittifaq 28 7 3 18 24
13 City 28 6 5 17 23
14 Al Dahra 28 5 6 17 21
15 Masfut 28 5 6 17 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dibba Al Hisn 28 58 25 +33 56
2 Hatta SC 28 57 25 +32 59
3 Al Fujairah SC 28 46 47 -1 39
4 Dubai United 28 45 28 +17 58
5 Al Hamriyah 28 45 34 +11 38
6 Al Arabi 28 44 34 +10 50
7 Gulf United 28 39 52 -13 25
8 Al Urooba 28 38 17 +21 57
9 Emirates Club 28 38 39 -1 42
10 Al Thaid 28 37 30 +7 48
11 Ittifaq 28 37 57 -20 24
12 Al Jazira Al Hamra 28 35 51 -16 24
13 Al Dahra 28 30 56 -26 21
14 Masfut 28 30 58 -28 21
15 City 28 29 55 -26 23