The model missed the final outcome (Al Dahra win 0–3).
The model had projected City at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 City Al Dahra ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| City | 41.8% | 47.0% | -5.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.5% | +0.1 pp | Aligned |
| Al Dahra | 32.6% | 27.5% | +5.1 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates City's win probability at 47.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Al Dahra win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on City. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned City; match finished Al Dahra
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on City by 5.2 percentage points (47.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · City 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Al Dahra 32.6%
- xG · City 1.45 — Al Dahra 1.25
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · City 1.97 · Draw 3.39 · Al Dahra 3.30
- Implied 1X2 · City 45.9% · Draw 26.7% · Al Dahra 27.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · City 1.95 · Draw 3.59 · Al Dahra 3.33
- Implied 1X2 · City 47.0% · Draw 25.5% · Al Dahra 27.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
May 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Dahra win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Division 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hatta SC | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 59 |
| 2 | Dubai United | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 58 |
| 3 | Al Urooba | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 57 |
| 4 | Dibba Al Hisn | 28 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 56 |
| 5 | Al Arabi | 28 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 50 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 7 | Emirates Club | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 42 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 39 |
| 9 | Al Hamriyah | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | Gulf United | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 25 |
| 11 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 24 |
| 12 | Ittifaq | 28 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 24 |
| 13 | City | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 |
| 14 | Al Dahra | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 21 |
| 15 | Masfut | 28 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dibba Al Hisn | 28 | 58 | 25 | +33 | 56 |
| 2 | Hatta SC | 28 | 57 | 25 | +32 | 59 |
| 3 | Al Fujairah SC | 28 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 39 |
| 4 | Dubai United | 28 | 45 | 28 | +17 | 58 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 28 | 45 | 34 | +11 | 38 |
| 6 | Al Arabi | 28 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 50 |
| 7 | Gulf United | 28 | 39 | 52 | -13 | 25 |
| 8 | Al Urooba | 28 | 38 | 17 | +21 | 57 |
| 9 | Emirates Club | 28 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 42 |
| 10 | Al Thaid | 28 | 37 | 30 | +7 | 48 |
| 11 | Ittifaq | 28 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 24 |
| 12 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 28 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 24 |
| 13 | Al Dahra | 28 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 21 |
| 14 | Masfut | 28 | 30 | 58 | -28 | 21 |
| 15 | City | 28 | 29 | 55 | -26 | 23 |
