Predictions / Football / Kenya. FKF Premier League / Tusker vs APS Bomet

Prediction Audit: Tusker vs APS Bomet Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tusker Tusker
May 31, 2026 - 12:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
APS Bomet APS Bomet

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Tusker at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Tusker Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Tusker; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 30, 2026 · 18:26 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Tusker 1.45 — APS Bomet 1.25
  2. May 31, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 21:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1512520

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Tusker 1–1 APS Bomet
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FKF Premier League
  • Fixture: Tusker vs APS Bomet
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-30 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Tusker 1.45 — APS Bomet 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 70.4% · Over 2.5 29.6%); BTTS No (Yes 40.4% · No 59.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 40.4% · No 59.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (15.0%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FKF Premier League FKF Premier League — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 GOR Mahia 34 20 9 5 69
2 AFC Leopards 34 19 7 8 64
3 Police 34 13 16 5 55
4 Nairobi United 34 14 11 9 53
5 Shabana 34 14 10 10 52
6 Homeboyz 34 12 13 9 49
7 KCB 34 13 9 12 48
8 Murang'a SEAL 34 13 8 13 47
9 Tusker 34 13 6 15 45
10 APS Bomet 34 11 11 12 44
11 Mara Sugar 34 10 14 10 44
12 Bandari 34 9 17 8 44
13 Ulinzi Stars 34 11 8 15 41
14 Mathare United 34 11 8 15 41
15 Posta Rangers FC 34 9 13 12 40
16 Kariobangi Sharks 34 8 14 12 38
17 Bidco United 34 5 12 17 27
18 Sofapaka 34 3 10 21 19
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 GOR Mahia 34 50 22 +28 69
2 Homeboyz 34 47 37 +10 49
3 AFC Leopards 34 44 28 +16 64
4 Nairobi United 34 44 34 +10 53
5 Murang'a SEAL 34 42 41 +1 47
6 APS Bomet 34 37 35 +2 44
7 KCB 34 36 37 -1 48
8 Shabana 34 35 34 +1 52
9 Ulinzi Stars 34 34 37 -3 41
10 Police 34 31 21 +10 55
11 Mathare United 34 31 35 -4 41
12 Posta Rangers FC 34 31 40 -9 40
13 Mara Sugar 34 30 30 0 44
14 Kariobangi Sharks 34 30 33 -3 38
15 Tusker 34 27 32 -5 45
16 Bandari 34 26 26 0 44
17 Bidco United 34 19 40 -21 27
18 Sofapaka 34 19 51 -32 19
FKF Premier League Kenya. FKF Premier League Predictions