The model missed the final outcome (KCB win 0–1).
The model had projected Bidco United at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bidco United KCB ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was KCB win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Bidco United 1.45 — KCB 1.25
-
Apr 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result KCB win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
KCB win · Bidco United 0–1 KCB
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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FKF Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 69 |
| 2 | AFC Leopards | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 64 |
| 3 | Police | 34 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 55 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 53 |
| 5 | Shabana | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 52 |
| 6 | Homeboyz | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 49 |
| 7 | KCB | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 48 |
| 8 | Murang'a SEAL | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 47 |
| 9 | Tusker | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 |
| 10 | APS Bomet | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 44 |
| 12 | Bandari | 34 | 9 | 17 | 8 | 44 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 15 | Posta Rangers FC | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 40 |
| 16 | Kariobangi Sharks | 34 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 38 |
| 17 | Bidco United | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 27 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 34 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 19 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 34 | 50 | 22 | +28 | 69 |
| 2 | Homeboyz | 34 | 47 | 37 | +10 | 49 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 34 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 64 |
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 53 |
| 5 | Murang'a SEAL | 34 | 42 | 41 | +1 | 47 |
| 6 | APS Bomet | 34 | 37 | 35 | +2 | 44 |
| 7 | KCB | 34 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 48 |
| 8 | Shabana | 34 | 35 | 34 | +1 | 52 |
| 9 | Ulinzi Stars | 34 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 41 |
| 10 | Police | 34 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 55 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 34 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 41 |
| 12 | Posta Rangers FC | 34 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 40 |
| 13 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 44 |
| 14 | Kariobangi Sharks | 34 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 38 |
| 15 | Tusker | 34 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 45 |
| 16 | Bandari | 34 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 44 |
| 17 | Bidco United | 34 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 27 |
| 18 | Sofapaka | 34 | 19 | 51 | -32 | 19 |
