Predictions / Football / Burkina-Faso. Ligue 1 / Etoile Filante vs AJEB

Prediction Audit: Etoile Filante vs AJEB Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Etoile Filante Etoile Filante
May 03, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
AJEB AJEB

AI correctly predicted the Etoile Filante win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Etoile Filante Etoile Filante ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 0-1, 1-0, 1-1, 0-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates AJEB considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: AJEB +13.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Etoile Filante 41.8% 50.4% -8.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 30.5% -4.8 pp Aligned
AJEB 32.6% 19.1% +13.4 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates AJEB's win probability at 32.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.1%, a difference of 13.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Etoile Filante win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on AJEB.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Etoile Filante more conservatively (28.4% vs model 41.8%, 13.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Etoile Filante win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Etoile Filante 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · AJEB 32.6%
    • xG · Etoile Filante 1.45 — AJEB 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Etoile Filante 1.76 · Draw 2.91 · AJEB 4.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Etoile Filante 50.4% · Draw 30.5% · AJEB 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Etoile Filante 1.76 · Draw 2.91 · AJEB 4.63
    • Implied 1X2 · Etoile Filante 50.4% · Draw 30.5% · AJEB 19.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 03, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Etoile Filante win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 32/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1532224

Closing Odds 4.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Etoile Filante win · Etoile Filante 3–0 AJEB
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Ligue 1
  • Fixture: Etoile Filante vs AJEB
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Etoile Filante 1.45 — AJEB 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 75.0% · Implied: 62.8% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +10.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 25.0% · No 75.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-0 (16.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Ligue 1 Ligue 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rahimo 29 20 8 1 68
2 USFA 29 11 13 5 46
3 Sporting Cascades 29 10 13 6 43
4 Douanes 29 10 13 6 43
5 Majestic 29 11 10 8 43
6 ASFA-Yennenga 29 9 11 9 38
7 ASFB 29 9 10 10 37
8 Salitas 29 9 10 10 37
9 CFFEB 29 9 10 10 37
10 Vitesse 29 9 9 11 36
11 Réal du Faso 29 9 9 11 36
12 RCK 29 9 8 12 35
13 SONABEL 29 7 12 10 33
14 Etoile Filante 29 7 11 11 32
15 RC Bobo-Dioulasso 29 6 9 14 27
16 AJEB 29 5 8 16 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rahimo 29 47 15 +32 68
2 USFA 29 29 17 +12 46
3 Douanes 29 28 27 +1 43
4 Majestic 29 26 24 +2 43
5 Salitas 29 26 29 -3 37
6 Vitesse 29 25 25 0 36
7 ASFA-Yennenga 29 24 27 -3 38
8 RCK 29 24 27 -3 35
9 Sporting Cascades 29 23 14 +9 43
10 CFFEB 29 23 24 -1 37
11 ASFB 29 23 28 -5 37
12 SONABEL 29 23 28 -5 33
13 AJEB 29 23 35 -12 23
14 Etoile Filante 29 22 29 -7 32
15 Réal du Faso 29 21 23 -2 36
16 RC Bobo-Dioulasso 29 11 26 -15 27
Ligue 1 Burkina-Faso. Ligue 1 Predictions