Predictions / Football / Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta / Səbail vs Şahdağ

Prediction Audit: Səbail vs Şahdağ Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Səbail Səbail
May 15, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Şahdağ Şahdağ

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Səbail at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Səbail Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Səbail higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Səbail -13.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Səbail 41.8% 55.7% -13.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.8% +1.9 pp Aligned
Şahdağ 32.6% 20.6% +12.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Səbail's win probability at 55.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 13.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Səbail than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Səbail; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Səbail by 13.9 percentage points (55.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 14, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Səbail 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Şahdağ 32.6%
    • xG · Səbail 1.45 — Şahdağ 1.25
  2. May 14, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Səbail 1.60 · Draw 3.75 · Şahdağ 4.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Səbail 55.7% · Draw 23.8% · Şahdağ 20.6%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 14, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Səbail 1.60 · Draw 3.75 · Şahdağ 4.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Səbail 55.7% · Draw 23.8% · Şahdağ 20.6%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 30/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 00:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3010623

Closing Odds 1.6
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Səbail 0–0 Şahdağ
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Birinci Dasta
  • Fixture: Səbail vs Şahdağ
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-14 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Səbail 1.45 — Şahdağ 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 55.7% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +25.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 57.8% · No 42.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Birinci Dasta Birinci Dasta — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Safa Baku 26 16 9 1 57
2 Səbail 26 14 8 4 50
3 Energetik 26 14 6 6 48
4 Baku Sportinq 26 13 9 4 48
5 Şahdağ 26 12 6 8 42
6 MOIK 27 9 6 12 33
7 Zaqatala 26 7 4 15 25
8 Cəbrayıl 27 7 3 17 24
9 Şimal 27 5 5 17 20
10 Difai Ağsu 27 4 6 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Safa Baku 26 51 19 +32 57
2 Energetik 26 51 26 +25 48
3 Səbail 26 45 17 +28 50
4 Cəbrayıl 27 40 56 -16 24
5 Baku Sportinq 26 39 22 +17 48
6 Şahdağ 26 35 26 +9 42
7 MOIK 27 33 40 -7 33
8 Difai Ağsu 27 28 60 -32 18
9 Zaqatala 26 25 43 -18 25
10 Şimal 27 23 61 -38 20
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta Predictions