Predictions / Football / Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta / Şimal vs Difai Ağsu

Prediction Audit: Şimal vs Difai Ağsu Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Şimal Şimal
May 14, 2026 - 13:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Difai Ağsu Difai Ağsu

The model missed the final outcome (Difai Ağsu win 0–1).

The model had projected Şimal at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Şimal Difai Ağsu ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Difai Ağsu higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Difai Ağsu -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Şimal 41.8% 31.8% +10.0 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.4% +0.3 pp Aligned
Difai Ağsu 32.6% 42.9% -10.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Difai Ağsu's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Difai Ağsu win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Difai Ağsu than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Şimal; match finished Difai Ağsu

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Şimal by 10.3 percentage points (52.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 14, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Şimal 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Difai Ağsu 32.6%
    • xG · Şimal 1.45 — Difai Ağsu 1.25
  2. May 14, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Şimal 2.78 · Draw 3.48 · Difai Ağsu 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Şimal 31.8% · Draw 25.4% · Difai Ağsu 42.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 14, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Şimal 2.78 · Draw 3.48 · Difai Ağsu 2.06
    • Implied 1X2 · Şimal 31.8% · Draw 25.4% · Difai Ağsu 42.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 14, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Difai Ağsu win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 10, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3549389

Closing Odds 2.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Difai Ağsu win · Şimal 0–1 Difai Ağsu
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Birinci Dasta
  • Fixture: Şimal vs Difai Ağsu
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-14 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Şimal 1.45 — Difai Ağsu 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 70.1% · Implied: 38.9% · Probability edge: +31.2 pts · Est. EV: +68.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 29.9% · No 70.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Birinci Dasta Birinci Dasta — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Safa Baku 26 16 9 1 57
2 Səbail 26 14 8 4 50
3 Energetik 26 14 6 6 48
4 Baku Sportinq 26 13 9 4 48
5 Şahdağ 26 12 6 8 42
6 MOIK 27 9 6 12 33
7 Zaqatala 26 7 4 15 25
8 Cəbrayıl 27 7 3 17 24
9 Şimal 27 5 5 17 20
10 Difai Ağsu 27 4 6 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Safa Baku 26 51 19 +32 57
2 Energetik 26 51 26 +25 48
3 Səbail 26 45 17 +28 50
4 Cəbrayıl 27 40 56 -16 24
5 Baku Sportinq 26 39 22 +17 48
6 Şahdağ 26 35 26 +9 42
7 MOIK 27 33 40 -7 33
8 Difai Ağsu 27 28 60 -32 18
9 Zaqatala 26 25 43 -18 25
10 Şimal 27 23 61 -38 20
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta Predictions