The model missed the final outcome (Səbail win 0–3).
The model had projected Zaqatala at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 draw Səbail ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaqatala | 41.8% | 17.8% | +24.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.7% | 23.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Səbail | 32.6% | 58.4% | -25.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Səbail's win probability at 58.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 25.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Səbail win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Səbail
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Zaqatala by 25.8 percentage points (67.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 06, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Zaqatala 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Səbail 32.6%
- xG · Zaqatala 1.45 — Səbail 1.25
-
May 06, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Zaqatala 5.05 · Draw 3.78 · Səbail 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Zaqatala 17.8% · Draw 23.8% · Səbail 58.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 06, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Zaqatala 5.05 · Draw 3.78 · Səbail 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Zaqatala 17.8% · Draw 23.8% · Səbail 58.4%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
May 06, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Səbail win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 41.8%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Birinci Dasta — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 57 |
| 2 | Səbail | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | Energetik | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 48 |
| 5 | Şahdağ | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | MOIK | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 7 | Zaqatala | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25 |
| 8 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 9 | Şimal | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 20 |
| 10 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 51 | 19 | +32 | 57 |
| 2 | Energetik | 26 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 48 |
| 3 | Səbail | 26 | 45 | 17 | +28 | 50 |
| 4 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 24 |
| 5 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 39 | 22 | +17 | 48 |
| 6 | Şahdağ | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 42 |
| 7 | MOIK | 27 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 18 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 26 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 25 |
| 10 | Şimal | 27 | 23 | 61 | -38 | 20 |
