Predictions / Football / Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta / Şahdağ vs Energetik

Prediction Audit: Şahdağ vs Energetik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Şahdağ Şahdağ
May 05, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Energetik Energetik

The model missed the final outcome (Şahdağ win 2–0).

The model had projected Şahdağ at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 draw Şahdağ ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Şahdağ considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Şahdağ +20.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Şahdağ 41.8% 21.7% +20.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.8% -1.2 pp Aligned
Energetik 32.6% 51.5% -18.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Şahdağ's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.7%, a difference of 20.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Şahdağ win 2–0.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Şahdağ by 20.1 percentage points (21.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 06, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Şahdağ 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Energetik 32.6%
    • xG · Şahdağ 1.45 — Energetik 1.25
  2. May 06, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Şahdağ 4.09 · Draw 3.30 · Energetik 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Şahdağ 21.7% · Draw 26.8% · Energetik 51.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 06, 2026 · 12:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Şahdağ 4.09 · Draw 3.30 · Energetik 1.72
    • Implied 1X2 · Şahdağ 21.7% · Draw 26.8% · Energetik 51.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 05, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Şahdağ win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 15/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3055879

Closing Odds 4.09
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Şahdağ win · Şahdağ 2–0 Energetik
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Birinci Dasta
  • Fixture: Şahdağ vs Energetik
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-06 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Şahdağ 1.45 — Energetik 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 62.5% · Implied: 49.7% · Probability edge: +12.8 pts · Est. EV: +15.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.5% · No 37.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.9%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Birinci Dasta Birinci Dasta — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Safa Baku 26 16 9 1 57
2 Səbail 26 14 8 4 50
3 Energetik 26 14 6 6 48
4 Baku Sportinq 26 13 9 4 48
5 Şahdağ 26 12 6 8 42
6 MOIK 27 9 6 12 33
7 Zaqatala 26 7 4 15 25
8 Cəbrayıl 27 7 3 17 24
9 Şimal 27 5 5 17 20
10 Difai Ağsu 27 4 6 17 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Safa Baku 26 51 19 +32 57
2 Energetik 26 51 26 +25 48
3 Səbail 26 45 17 +28 50
4 Cəbrayıl 27 40 56 -16 24
5 Baku Sportinq 26 39 22 +17 48
6 Şahdağ 26 35 26 +9 42
7 MOIK 27 33 40 -7 33
8 Difai Ağsu 27 28 60 -32 18
9 Zaqatala 26 25 43 -18 25
10 Şimal 27 23 61 -38 20
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan. Birinci Dasta Predictions