1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Draw
- Model probability
- —
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- —
No Value Edge
Southampton U21 vs RB Leipzig U21 Prediction
Model lean is not a Primary bet — one answer only below.
No Primary Bet
Consensus EV
—
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
—
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
—
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Model snapshot generated
Risk factors
- ✗Primary conditions not fully met
Market Intelligence
Market move · RB Leipzig U21 · ↓ -5.5%
Breadth
6/10
Books moving same direction
Pinnacle Sharp
↓ -13.7%
William Hill
↓ -9.7%
Superbet
↓ -6.7%
1xBet
↓ -5.6%
Bet365 Sharp
↓ -5.5%
Marathonbet
↓ -5.3%
Move Score
41 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseSharp repricing
StatusSharp-led move
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
Sharp repricing on RB Leipzig U21 — compare with model probabilities.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Over 2.5
- Model probability (Over)
- 65.1%
- Market probability (Over)
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS (Yes)
- Lean
- Yes
- Model probability
- 66.7%
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 66.7%
BTTS No 33.3%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 9.7%
- Market probability (1-1)
- 11.1%
- Difference
- -1.4 pp
- EV @ Market Odds
- -12.7%
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 9.7%
- 2-1 9.0%
- 1-2 7.3%
- 2-2 6.8%
- 1-0 6.5%
Match Phase: Upcoming
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Market monitoring
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 2.6
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Waiting Expected before kickoff
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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