Predictions / Football / Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 / Nea Artaki vs Apollon Kalyt.

Prediction Audit: Nea Artaki vs Apollon Kalyt. Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Nea Artaki Nea Artaki
Jan 18, 2026 - 11:00
2 0.74
0 0.61
xG Accuracy: 60%
Apollon Kalyt. Apollon Kalyt.

The model missed the final outcome (Nea Artaki win 2–0).

The model had projected Draw at 42.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Draw Nea Artaki ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.35, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Nea Artaki

Market lesson

The full-time result was Nea Artaki win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Nea Artaki 0.74 — Apollon Kalyt. 0.61
  2. Jan 18, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Nea Artaki win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 09:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1692374

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Nea Artaki win · Nea Artaki 2–0 Apollon Kalyt.
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Aris Petroupolis 22 15 6 1 51
2 Nea Artaki 22 12 9 1 45
3 Karystos 22 9 8 5 35
4 Diagoras 22 8 9 5 33
5 Afantou 22 9 5 8 32
6 Asteras Kaisarianis 22 9 5 8 32
7 Nea Ionia 22 9 4 9 31
8 Apollon Kalyt. 22 9 4 9 31
9 Vyrona 22 7 7 8 28
10 Kentavros 22 8 3 11 27
11 Amarynthiakos 22 4 2 16 14
12 Rodos 22 1 2 19 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Aris Petroupolis 22 36 11 +25 51
2 Asteras Kaisarianis 22 32 26 +6 32
3 Apollon Kalyt. 22 32 31 +1 31
4 Vyrona 22 29 22 +7 28
5 Diagoras 22 27 17 +10 33
6 Kentavros 22 27 30 -3 27
7 Afantou 22 25 24 +1 32
8 Nea Artaki 22 24 9 +15 45
9 Nea Ionia 22 23 23 0 31
10 Karystos 22 22 12 +10 35
11 Amarynthiakos 22 20 36 -16 14
12 Rodos 22 4 60 -56 5
Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Greece. Gamma Ethniki - Group 5 Predictions