The model missed the final outcome (Aetos Orfani win 1–3).
The model had projected Orestis Orestiadas at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
C
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Orestis Orestiadas Aetos Orfani ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Orestis Orestiadas; match finished Aetos Orfani
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Aetos Orfani win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Orestis Orestiadas 1.49 — Aetos Orfani 1.23
-
Feb 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Aetos Orfani win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Aetos Orfani win · Orestis Orestiadas 1–3 Aetos Orfani
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Gamma Ethniki - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthrakikos | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 51 |
| 2 | Xanthi FC | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 44 |
| 3 | Doxa Dramas | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 4 | Iraklis Therm. | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 38 |
| 5 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 22 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 34 |
| 6 | Aetos Orfani | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 7 | PAO Kristoni | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Apollon KV | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 26 |
| 9 | Thermaikos Thermis | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 10 | Kilkisiakos | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | PAOK Dytiko | 22 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 16 |
| 12 | Orestis Orestiadas | 22 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthrakikos | 22 | 52 | 17 | +35 | 51 |
| 2 | Xanthi FC | 22 | 48 | 17 | +31 | 44 |
| 3 | Doxa Dramas | 22 | 41 | 25 | +16 | 43 |
| 4 | Aetos Orfani | 22 | 37 | 37 | 0 | 33 |
| 5 | Iraklis Therm. | 22 | 31 | 18 | +13 | 38 |
| 6 | Apollon KV | 22 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 26 |
| 7 | Poseidon Nea Michaniona | 22 | 28 | 22 | +6 | 34 |
| 8 | Kilkisiakos | 22 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 21 |
| 9 | PAO Kristoni | 22 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | PAOK Dytiko | 22 | 21 | 42 | -21 | 16 |
| 11 | Thermaikos Thermis | 22 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 22 |
| 12 | Orestis Orestiadas | 22 | 12 | 63 | -51 | 4 |
