Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga / Austria Lustenau II vs Göfis

Prediction Audit: Austria Lustenau II vs Göfis Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Austria Lustenau II Austria Lustenau II
May 14, 2026 - 08:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Göfis Göfis

The model missed the final outcome (Austria Lustenau II win 3–0).

The model had projected Austria Lustenau II at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 draw Austria Lustenau II ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Austria Lustenau II
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Austria Lustenau II win 3–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 01:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Austria Lustenau II 1.45 — Göfis 1.25
  2. May 14, 2026 · 08:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Austria Lustenau II win · 3–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 15:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3682881

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Austria Lustenau II win · Austria Lustenau II 3–0 Göfis
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga
  • Fixture: Austria Lustenau II vs Göfis
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Austria Lustenau II 1.45 — Göfis 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 25.3% · Over 2.5 74.7%); BTTS No (Yes 45.6% · No 54.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 45.6% · No 54.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Röthis 25 15 5 5 50
2 Wolfurt 25 15 0 10 45
3 Lochau 25 14 3 8 45
4 FC Egg 24 14 2 8 44
5 Admira Dornbirn 25 13 4 8 43
6 Dornbirner SV 25 10 7 8 37
7 Hard 24 11 2 11 35
8 Ludesch 25 10 4 10 34
9 Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 23 9 3 11 30
10 Austria Lustenau II 25 10 2 13 32
11 Rotenberg 26 8 7 11 31
12 Bizau 25 6 7 12 25
13 Nenzing 25 6 4 14 22
14 Göfis 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Admira Dornbirn 25 57 47 +10 43
2 Wolfurt 25 56 44 +12 45
3 Röthis 25 54 27 +27 50
4 Dornbirner SV 25 50 35 +15 37
5 Austria Lustenau II 25 48 49 -1 32
6 Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 23 43 54 -11 30
7 Lochau 25 40 29 +11 45
8 Ludesch 25 39 37 +2 34
9 FC Egg 24 38 27 +11 44
10 Rotenberg 26 38 41 -3 31
11 Bizau 25 36 52 -16 25
12 Göfis 24 35 63 -28 15
13 Nenzing 25 32 60 -28 22
14 Hard 24 29 31 -2 35