Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga / Wolfurt vs Hard

Prediction Audit: Wolfurt vs Hard Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wolfurt Wolfurt
May 10, 2026 - 14:30
2 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Hard Hard

The model missed the final outcome (Hard win 2–3).

The model had projected Wolfurt at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wolfurt Hard ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Wolfurt; match finished Hard
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Hard win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 03, 2026 · 01:15 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Wolfurt 1.45 — Hard 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Hard win · 2–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1604746

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hard win · Wolfurt 2–3 Hard
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga
  • Fixture: Wolfurt vs Hard
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Wolfurt 1.45 — Hard 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.3% · Over 2.5 57.7%); BTTS Yes (Yes 51.9% · No 48.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 51.9% · No 48.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Röthis 25 15 5 5 50
2 Wolfurt 25 15 0 10 45
3 Lochau 25 14 3 8 45
4 FC Egg 24 14 2 8 44
5 Admira Dornbirn 25 13 4 8 43
6 Dornbirner SV 25 10 7 8 37
7 Hard 24 11 2 11 35
8 Ludesch 25 10 4 10 34
9 Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 23 9 3 11 30
10 Austria Lustenau II 25 10 2 13 32
11 Rotenberg 26 8 7 11 31
12 Bizau 25 6 7 12 25
13 Nenzing 25 6 4 14 22
14 Göfis 24 3 6 15 15
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Admira Dornbirn 25 57 47 +10 43
2 Wolfurt 25 56 44 +12 45
3 Röthis 25 54 27 +27 50
4 Dornbirner SV 25 50 35 +15 37
5 Austria Lustenau II 25 48 49 -1 32
6 Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 23 43 54 -11 30
7 Lochau 25 40 29 +11 45
8 Ludesch 25 39 37 +2 34
9 FC Egg 24 38 27 +11 44
10 Rotenberg 26 38 41 -3 31
11 Bizau 25 36 52 -16 25
12 Göfis 24 35 63 -28 15
13 Nenzing 25 32 60 -28 22
14 Hard 24 29 31 -2 35