Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Tirol / Volders vs Mils

Prediction Audit: Volders vs Mils Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Volders Volders
Jun 04, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.83
1 1.84
xG Accuracy: 58%
Mils Mils

The model missed the final outcome (Volders win 3–1).

The model had projected Mils at 38.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mils Volders ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 1-3 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.67) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Mils; match finished Volders
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Volders win 3–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 03, 2026 · 18:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Volders 1.83 — Mils 1.84
  2. Jun 04, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Volders win · 3–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1483773

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Volders win · Volders 3–1 Mils
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Landesliga - Tirol
  • Fixture: Volders vs Mils
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-03 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.9% · Draw 23.9% · Away 38.2%
  • xG (showing): Volders 1.83 — Mils 1.84 (total xG ≈ 3.67)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 29.0% · Over 2.5 71.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 71.7% · No 28.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 71.7% · No 28.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (8.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Tirol Landesliga - Tirol — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 St. Johann in Tirol 24 17 3 4 54
2 Swarovski Tirol II 23 16 5 2 53
3 Fügen 25 17 2 6 53
4 Innsbrucker AC 24 11 4 9 37
5 Kundl 23 11 2 10 35
6 Ebbs 25 10 5 10 35
7 Völs 23 8 9 6 33
8 Telfs 24 9 2 13 29
9 Oberperfuss 25 9 2 14 29
10 Silz / Mötz 25 9 1 15 28
11 Kematen 25 6 7 12 25
12 Wörgl 23 8 1 14 25
13 Mils 23 5 6 12 21
14 Volders 24 5 5 14 20
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Fügen 25 66 35 +31 53
2 St. Johann in Tirol 24 56 24 +32 54
3 Swarovski Tirol II 23 54 21 +33 53
4 Silz / Mötz 25 50 58 -8 28
5 Kundl 23 49 37 +12 35
6 Ebbs 25 49 40 +9 35
7 Oberperfuss 25 47 59 -12 29
8 Telfs 24 45 49 -4 29
9 Innsbrucker AC 24 43 34 +9 37
10 Kematen 25 41 59 -18 25
11 Völs 23 34 34 0 33
12 Mils 23 30 55 -25 21
13 Wörgl 23 28 56 -28 25
14 Volders 24 28 59 -31 20