The model missed the final outcome (Swarovski Tirol II win 0–8).
The model had projected Oberperfuss at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Oberperfuss Swarovski Tirol II ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-8 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 8 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Oberperfuss; match finished Swarovski Tirol II
Market lesson
The full-time result was Swarovski Tirol II win 0–8, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Oberperfuss 1.45 — Swarovski Tirol II 1.25
-
Apr 04, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Swarovski Tirol II win · 0–8
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Swarovski Tirol II win · Oberperfuss 0–8 Swarovski Tirol II
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Landesliga - Tirol — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Johann in Tirol | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | Swarovski Tirol II | 23 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 53 |
| 3 | Fügen | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 53 |
| 4 | Innsbrucker AC | 24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 37 |
| 5 | Kundl | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Ebbs | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 7 | Völs | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 33 |
| 8 | Telfs | 24 | 9 | 2 | 13 | 29 |
| 9 | Oberperfuss | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 29 |
| 10 | Silz / Mötz | 25 | 9 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 11 | Kematen | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 25 |
| 12 | Wörgl | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 25 |
| 13 | Mils | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 |
| 14 | Volders | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 20 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fügen | 25 | 66 | 35 | +31 | 53 |
| 2 | St. Johann in Tirol | 24 | 56 | 24 | +32 | 54 |
| 3 | Swarovski Tirol II | 23 | 54 | 21 | +33 | 53 |
| 4 | Silz / Mötz | 25 | 50 | 58 | -8 | 28 |
| 5 | Kundl | 23 | 49 | 37 | +12 | 35 |
| 6 | Ebbs | 25 | 49 | 40 | +9 | 35 |
| 7 | Oberperfuss | 25 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 29 |
| 8 | Telfs | 24 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 29 |
| 9 | Innsbrucker AC | 24 | 43 | 34 | +9 | 37 |
| 10 | Kematen | 25 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 25 |
| 11 | Völs | 23 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 33 |
| 12 | Mils | 23 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 21 |
| 13 | Wörgl | 23 | 28 | 56 | -28 | 25 |
| 14 | Volders | 24 | 28 | 59 | -31 | 20 |
