Prediction Audit: Bürmoos vs Hallwang Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jun 06, 2026 - 15:00
5 2.46
0 1.42
xG Accuracy: 34%

AI correctly predicted the Bürmoos win.

The match finished 5–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bürmoos Bürmoos ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 3-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-0 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.88) — 5 goals materialised
  • Bürmoos attacking xG significantly stronger (2.46 vs 1.42)
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Bürmoos win 5–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 06, 2026 · 18:16 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Bürmoos 2.46 — Hallwang 1.42
  2. Jun 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bürmoos win · 5–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 45/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (82%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 47/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3062547

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bürmoos win · Bürmoos 5–0 Hallwang
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Landesliga - Salzburg
  • Fixture: Bürmoos vs Hallwang
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-06 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 59.4% · Draw 20.5% · Away 20.1%
  • xG (showing): Bürmoos 2.46 — Hallwang 1.42 (total xG ≈ 3.88)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 25.6% · Over 2.5 74.4%); BTTS Yes (Yes 70.3% · No 29.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 70.3% · No 29.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.9%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Salzburg Landesliga - Salzburg — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Grödig 28 24 1 3 73
2 UFC Hallein 28 21 5 2 68
3 Bürmoos 28 16 6 6 54
4 Siezenheim 28 16 0 12 48
5 Bramberg 27 14 4 9 46
6 Straßwalchen 28 14 3 11 45
7 Salzburger AK 29 13 5 11 44
8 Eugendorf 28 12 3 13 39
9 Neumarkt 28 11 4 13 37
10 Union Henndorf 28 9 5 14 32
11 Puch 28 9 4 15 31
12 SV Schwarzach 28 10 1 17 31
13 Anif 28 8 6 14 30
14 Thalgau 28 8 6 14 30
15 Anthering 28 7 4 17 25
16 Hallwang 28 3 1 24 10
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Grödig 28 94 19 +75 73
2 UFC Hallein 28 78 31 +47 68
3 Thalgau 28 66 80 -14 30
4 Straßwalchen 28 64 60 +4 45
5 Siezenheim 28 63 45 +18 48
6 Bramberg 27 62 46 +16 46
7 Bürmoos 28 56 32 +24 54
8 Salzburger AK 29 49 50 -1 44
9 Neumarkt 28 49 64 -15 37
10 SV Schwarzach 28 47 68 -21 31
11 Eugendorf 28 46 34 +12 39
12 Union Henndorf 28 46 53 -7 32
13 Anif 28 45 49 -4 30
14 Puch 28 42 62 -20 31
15 Anthering 28 42 79 -37 25
16 Hallwang 28 26 103 -77 10