Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Niederosterreich / Kilb vs Korneuburg

Prediction Audit: Kilb vs Korneuburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kilb Kilb
May 15, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Korneuburg Korneuburg

AI correctly predicted the Kilb win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Kilb Kilb ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 2-2, 0-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Kilb win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kilb 1.45 — Korneuburg 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Kilb win · 3–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1652412

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kilb win · Kilb 3–0 Korneuburg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Landesliga - Niederosterreich
  • Fixture: Kilb vs Korneuburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 14:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Kilb 1.45 — Korneuburg 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.1% · No 46.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.1% · No 46.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Niederosterreich Landesliga - Niederosterreich — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Scheiblingkirchen 27 16 8 3 56
2 Admira II 28 16 4 8 52
3 Ebreichsdorf 28 13 5 10 44
4 Ybbs 29 12 8 9 44
5 Langenrohr 28 12 7 9 43
6 SC Wiener Neustadt 28 11 9 8 42
7 Wieselburg 28 11 7 10 40
8 Ardagger 28 9 12 7 39
9 Zwettl 28 11 6 11 39
10 St. Pölten II 28 10 8 10 38
11 St. Peter 28 8 10 10 34
12 Korneuburg 27 8 8 11 32
13 Ortmann 29 7 10 12 31
14 Kilb 28 7 8 13 29
15 Stockerau 28 7 7 14 28
16 Schrems 28 6 3 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Admira II 28 70 40 +30 52
2 Scheiblingkirchen 27 59 25 +34 56
3 Ebreichsdorf 28 58 47 +11 44
4 Zwettl 28 49 46 +3 39
5 St. Pölten II 28 47 39 +8 38
6 Ybbs 29 47 40 +7 44
7 Wieselburg 28 43 41 +2 40
8 SC Wiener Neustadt 28 42 29 +13 42
9 Langenrohr 28 41 48 -7 43
10 Kilb 28 39 56 -17 29
11 Ardagger 28 37 31 +6 39
12 Ortmann 29 37 46 -9 31
13 St. Peter 28 37 52 -15 34
14 Korneuburg 27 35 47 -12 32
15 Stockerau 28 35 50 -15 28
16 Schrems 28 32 71 -39 21