Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Karnten / St. Veit / Glan vs KAC

Prediction Audit: St. Veit / Glan vs KAC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

St. Veit / Glan St. Veit / Glan
May 14, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
KAC KAC

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected St. Veit / Glan at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 St. Veit / Glan Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned St. Veit / Glan; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 07, 2026 · 19:47 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · St. Veit / Glan 1.45 — KAC 1.25
  2. May 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1532220

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · St. Veit / Glan 1–1 KAC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Landesliga - Karnten
  • Fixture: St. Veit / Glan vs KAC
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-14 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): St. Veit / Glan 1.45 — KAC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 59.0% · No 41.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Karnten Landesliga - Karnten — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Donau Klagenfurt 30 18 7 5 61
2 Lendorf 30 17 6 7 57
3 Völkermarkt 30 17 4 9 55
4 Wolfsberg 30 16 6 8 54
5 Bleiburg 30 14 6 10 48
6 St. Veit / Glan 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dellach im Gailtal 30 12 7 11 43
8 Grafenstein 30 12 7 11 43
9 Austria Klagenfurt II 30 10 11 9 41
10 SAK Klagenfurt 30 9 11 10 38
11 TSU Matrei 30 11 5 14 38
12 Köttmannsdorf 30 8 7 15 31
13 KAC 30 6 11 13 29
14 Spittal 30 7 8 15 29
15 Ferlach 30 7 8 15 29
16 Nußdorf 30 7 2 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Völkermarkt 30 84 59 +25 55
2 Wolfsberg 30 74 49 +25 54
3 Donau Klagenfurt 30 58 28 +30 61
4 Dellach im Gailtal 30 56 49 +7 43
5 Grafenstein 30 56 52 +4 43
6 Lendorf 30 55 33 +22 57
7 St. Veit / Glan 30 52 43 +9 45
8 Austria Klagenfurt II 30 50 50 0 41
9 SAK Klagenfurt 30 48 43 +5 38
10 Köttmannsdorf 30 46 59 -13 31
11 Bleiburg 30 43 38 +5 48
12 TSU Matrei 30 37 42 -5 38
13 KAC 30 36 52 -16 29
14 Ferlach 30 34 70 -36 29
15 Nußdorf 30 34 71 -37 23
16 Spittal 30 32 56 -24 29