Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Karnten / Dellach im Gailtal vs Spittal

Prediction Audit: Dellach im Gailtal vs Spittal Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dellach im Gailtal Dellach im Gailtal
May 10, 2026 - 15:00
4 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 35%
Spittal Spittal

AI correctly predicted the Dellach im Gailtal win.

The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Dellach im Gailtal Dellach im Gailtal ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Dellach im Gailtal win 4–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 04, 2026 · 01:11 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Dellach im Gailtal 1.45 — Spittal 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Dellach im Gailtal win · 4–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 13:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3177995

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dellach im Gailtal win · Dellach im Gailtal 4–0 Spittal
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Landesliga - Karnten
  • Fixture: Dellach im Gailtal vs Spittal
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 21:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Dellach im Gailtal 1.45 — Spittal 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 40.1% · Over 2.5 59.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 55.1% · No 44.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.1% · No 44.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.4%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Karnten Landesliga - Karnten — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Donau Klagenfurt 30 18 7 5 61
2 Lendorf 30 17 6 7 57
3 Völkermarkt 30 17 4 9 55
4 Wolfsberg 30 16 6 8 54
5 Bleiburg 30 14 6 10 48
6 St. Veit / Glan 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dellach im Gailtal 30 12 7 11 43
8 Grafenstein 30 12 7 11 43
9 Austria Klagenfurt II 30 10 11 9 41
10 SAK Klagenfurt 30 9 11 10 38
11 TSU Matrei 30 11 5 14 38
12 Köttmannsdorf 30 8 7 15 31
13 KAC 30 6 11 13 29
14 Spittal 30 7 8 15 29
15 Ferlach 30 7 8 15 29
16 Nußdorf 30 7 2 21 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Völkermarkt 30 84 59 +25 55
2 Wolfsberg 30 74 49 +25 54
3 Donau Klagenfurt 30 58 28 +30 61
4 Dellach im Gailtal 30 56 49 +7 43
5 Grafenstein 30 56 52 +4 43
6 Lendorf 30 55 33 +22 57
7 St. Veit / Glan 30 52 43 +9 45
8 Austria Klagenfurt II 30 50 50 0 41
9 SAK Klagenfurt 30 48 43 +5 38
10 Köttmannsdorf 30 46 59 -13 31
11 Bleiburg 30 43 38 +5 48
12 TSU Matrei 30 37 42 -5 38
13 KAC 30 36 52 -16 29
14 Ferlach 30 34 70 -36 29
15 Nußdorf 30 34 71 -37 23
16 Spittal 30 32 56 -24 29