Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Burgenland / Eberau vs Bad Sauerbrunn

Prediction Audit: Eberau vs Bad Sauerbrunn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Eberau Eberau
Jun 06, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.72
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 51%
Bad Sauerbrunn Bad Sauerbrunn

The model missed the final outcome (Bad Sauerbrunn win 1–3).

The model had projected Eberau at 46.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Eberau Bad Sauerbrunn ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.01) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Eberau; match finished Bad Sauerbrunn
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Bad Sauerbrunn win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jun 06, 2026 · 18:38 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Eberau 1.72 — Bad Sauerbrunn 1.29
  2. Jun 06, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Bad Sauerbrunn win · 1–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 02:36 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1536011

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bad Sauerbrunn win · Eberau 1–3 Bad Sauerbrunn
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Landesliga - Burgenland
  • Fixture: Eberau vs Bad Sauerbrunn
  • Kickoff: 2026-06-06 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 46.1% · Draw 26.5% · Away 27.4%
  • xG (showing): Eberau 1.72 — Bad Sauerbrunn 1.29 (total xG ≈ 3.01)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.1% · Over 2.5 57.9%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 60.9% · No 39.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Burgenland Landesliga - Burgenland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mattersburg 2020 30 20 9 1 69
2 Leithaprodersdorf 30 16 7 7 55
3 Eberau 30 13 12 5 51
4 Deutschkreutz 30 14 4 12 46
5 Halbturn 30 12 9 9 45
6 Kohfidisch 30 13 4 13 43
7 St. Margarethen / Bur 30 11 8 11 41
8 Neudorf / Parn 30 12 5 13 41
9 Oberpullendorf 30 11 7 12 40
10 SK Pama 30 11 7 12 40
11 Bad Sauerbrunn 30 10 9 11 39
12 Siegendorf 30 9 10 12 37
13 Edelserpentin 30 10 6 14 36
14 Horitschon 30 9 7 14 34
15 Klingenbach 30 8 10 12 34
16 Jennersdorf 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mattersburg 2020 30 72 24 +48 69
2 Leithaprodersdorf 30 61 35 +26 55
3 Deutschkreutz 30 52 46 +6 46
4 Eberau 30 51 27 +24 51
5 Kohfidisch 30 47 47 0 43
6 Oberpullendorf 30 46 44 +2 40
7 Horitschon 30 46 65 -19 34
8 Bad Sauerbrunn 30 44 43 +1 39
9 Halbturn 30 43 44 -1 45
10 St. Margarethen / Bur 30 43 47 -4 41
11 Siegendorf 30 43 52 -9 37
12 Klingenbach 30 40 46 -6 34
13 SK Pama 30 38 42 -4 40
14 Neudorf / Parn 30 36 42 -6 41
15 Edelserpentin 30 34 45 -11 36
16 Jennersdorf 30 26 70 -44 13