Predictions / Football / Austria. Landesliga - Burgenland / Horitschon vs Bad Sauerbrunn

Prediction Audit: Horitschon vs Bad Sauerbrunn Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Horitschon Horitschon
May 23, 2026 - 15:30
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Bad Sauerbrunn Bad Sauerbrunn

AI correctly predicted the Horitschon win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Horitschon Horitschon ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 0-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Horitschon win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:03 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Horitschon 1.45 — Bad Sauerbrunn 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Horitschon win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1659238

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Horitschon win · Horitschon 2–1 Bad Sauerbrunn
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Landesliga - Burgenland
  • Fixture: Horitschon vs Bad Sauerbrunn
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Horitschon 1.45 — Bad Sauerbrunn 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 38.0% · Over 2.5 62.0%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Landesliga - Burgenland Landesliga - Burgenland — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mattersburg 2020 30 20 9 1 69
2 Leithaprodersdorf 30 16 7 7 55
3 Eberau 30 13 12 5 51
4 Deutschkreutz 30 14 4 12 46
5 Halbturn 30 12 9 9 45
6 Kohfidisch 30 13 4 13 43
7 St. Margarethen / Bur 30 11 8 11 41
8 Neudorf / Parn 30 12 5 13 41
9 Oberpullendorf 30 11 7 12 40
10 SK Pama 30 11 7 12 40
11 Bad Sauerbrunn 30 10 9 11 39
12 Siegendorf 30 9 10 12 37
13 Edelserpentin 30 10 6 14 36
14 Horitschon 30 9 7 14 34
15 Klingenbach 30 8 10 12 34
16 Jennersdorf 30 3 4 23 13
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mattersburg 2020 30 72 24 +48 69
2 Leithaprodersdorf 30 61 35 +26 55
3 Deutschkreutz 30 52 46 +6 46
4 Eberau 30 51 27 +24 51
5 Kohfidisch 30 47 47 0 43
6 Oberpullendorf 30 46 44 +2 40
7 Horitschon 30 46 65 -19 34
8 Bad Sauerbrunn 30 44 43 +1 39
9 Halbturn 30 43 44 -1 45
10 St. Margarethen / Bur 30 43 47 -4 41
11 Siegendorf 30 43 52 -9 37
12 Klingenbach 30 40 46 -6 34
13 SK Pama 30 38 42 -4 40
14 Neudorf / Parn 30 36 42 -6 41
15 Edelserpentin 30 34 45 -11 36
16 Jennersdorf 30 26 70 -44 13