Predictions / Football / Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 / Utrillas vs Caspe

Prediction Audit: Utrillas vs Caspe Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Utrillas Utrillas
May 10, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Caspe Caspe

The model missed the final outcome (Caspe win 1–2).

The model had projected Utrillas at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Utrillas Caspe ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Utrillas considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Utrillas +11.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Utrillas 41.8% 30.5% +11.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 30.1% -4.5 pp Aligned
Caspe 32.6% 39.3% -6.8 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Utrillas's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.5%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Caspe win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Utrillas.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Utrillas by 11.2 percentage points (30.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Utrillas 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Caspe 32.6%
    • xG · Utrillas 1.45 — Caspe 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Utrillas 2.91 · Draw 2.95 · Caspe 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Utrillas 30.5% · Draw 30.1% · Caspe 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Utrillas 2.91 · Draw 2.95 · Caspe 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Utrillas 30.5% · Draw 30.1% · Caspe 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Caspe win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 19:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1628151

Closing Odds 2.91
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Caspe win · Utrillas 1–2 Caspe
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Tercera División RFEF - Group 17
  • Fixture: Utrillas vs Caspe
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Utrillas 1.45 — Caspe 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 63.6% · Implied: 47.6% · Probability edge: +16.0 pts · Est. EV: +23.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 36.4% · No 63.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Calamocha 34 23 6 5 75
2 Cuarte 34 20 14 0 74
3 Atlético Monzón 34 22 5 7 71
4 Épila 34 19 10 5 67
5 Caspe 34 13 14 7 53
6 Huesca II 34 14 10 10 52
7 Binéfar 34 14 6 14 48
8 La Almunia 34 11 14 9 47
9 Almudévar 34 12 8 14 44
10 CDJ Tamarite 34 10 11 13 41
11 Andorra CF 34 10 9 15 39
12 Illueca 34 9 11 14 38
13 Robres 34 10 6 18 36
14 Cariñena 34 5 17 12 32
15 Belchite 97 34 7 11 16 32
16 UD Casetas 34 6 12 16 30
17 Utrillas 34 5 14 15 29
18 Zuera 34 2 10 22 16
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atlético Monzón 34 72 37 +35 71
2 Binéfar 34 58 47 +11 48
3 Huesca II 34 52 33 +19 52
4 Calamocha 34 49 22 +27 75
5 Cuarte 34 43 12 +31 74
6 La Almunia 34 42 38 +4 47
7 CDJ Tamarite 34 41 47 -6 41
8 UD Casetas 34 40 56 -16 30
9 Épila 34 39 20 +19 67
10 Caspe 34 38 26 +12 53
11 Robres 34 38 49 -11 36
12 Utrillas 34 36 57 -21 29
13 Andorra CF 34 35 45 -10 39
14 Cariñena 34 35 45 -10 32
15 Illueca 34 35 51 -16 38
16 Almudévar 34 34 39 -5 44
17 Belchite 97 34 28 43 -15 32
18 Zuera 34 17 65 -48 16
Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Spain. Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 Predictions